Steelers @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sun, Oct 13, 2024, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Las Vegas Raiders

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

3-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

2-3 · Power #27

final

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

✓ PIT W

Total

36.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 23–19 LV

✓ PIT (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -2.5

ClosePIT -3.5

Total36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPIT -2.5

1 → PIT

ClosePIT -3.5

1 pt toward Pittsburgh Steelers

Total

Open36.5

no move

Close36.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PIT -2.5 · closed PIT -3.5 · moved 1 toward PITmodel PIT -4

model PIT -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (53 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -2.5

ClosePIT -3.5

Total36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 3.5-point road favorite at LV, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 32–13; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 36.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.5 against an average line of 3.4; 35.7 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PIT @ IND 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–27	L	O40.5
Close	CLE @ LV 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	16–20	L	U38.5
Loose	NO @ ATL 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4	30–20	W	O40
Loose	GB @ CAR 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	33–30	L	O39.5
Loose	TB @ CAR 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	9–0	W	U36.5
Loose	HOU @ NYJ 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	6–30	L	O33.5
Loose	WSH @ HOU 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	23–10	W	U41
Loose	CIN @ PIT 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	11–34	L	O39
Loose	CAR @ NYG 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	3–25	L	U42.5
Loose	LAC @ NE 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	6–0	W	U38.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT W–WLL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2
LV LWLWL	2-3	40%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: PIT away, as favorite; LV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT U–UOU	1-3	25%	3-2
LV UOOUO	3-2	60%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 34 earlier overs in games with totals 33.5–39.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%
LV	5-5 50%	6-3-1 67%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PIT 8–7 LV PIT leads · 15 games since 2000 · PIT has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 24 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 23 @ Las Vegas Raiders 18	LV -1.5	PIT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−0.4 →+0.7▲ 1.1#11

LV−0.8 →−3.1▼ 2.3#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

PIT

Longer bar = better

#22

Offense

◀ PIT better

#25

Defense

◀ PIT better

#22

+0.8 #6

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

−1.4 #30

63 plays #16

Pace

◀ PIT faster

60 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	18.4 #26	26.2 #28	Even
Yards / play	4.77 #25	5.52 #19	LV
EPA / play	−0.02 #19	+0.02 #20	Even
Success rate	42% #16	44% #20	Even

When LV has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	LV off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	19.2 #23	14.6 #2	PIT
Yards / play	4.98 #21	5.14 #9	PIT
EPA / play	−0.19 #29	−0.08 #8	PIT
Success rate	39% #26	41% #10	PIT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	2.6 #27	3.8 #28	6.4 #30	5.2 #12	6.8 #12	12.0 #10
LV allowed	4.6 #16	7.2 #21	11.8 #17	4.6 #13	9.8 #29	14.4 #28

LV scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	4.8 #14	3.2 #29	8.0 #27	3.4 #22	7.8 #4	11.2 #14
PIT allowed	5.4 #21	3.2 #2	8.6 #7	0.0 #1	6.0 #19	6.0 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.