49ers @ Seahawks: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Thu, Oct 10, 2024, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Seattle Seahawks · Division game

Weather at kickoff56°F13 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

2-3 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

Seattle Seahawks

3-2 · Power #19

final

Closing spread

SF -3.5

✓ SF W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 25–22 SEA

✓ SF (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -3.5

CloseSF -3.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -3.5

no move

CloseSF -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▲ 2

Close48.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -3.5 · unchangedmodel SF -4.5

model SF -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 52% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -3.5

CloseSF -3.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 3.5-point road favorite at SEA, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 36–24; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.6 against an average line of 3.2; 53 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar season form	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	KC @ LAC 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	34–28	W	O50
Close	LAR @ MIN 2021 · Week 16 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-3	30–23	W	O48.5
Loose	SF @ TEN 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	17–20	L	U45.5
Loose	KC @ CIN 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-4	31–34	L	O50.5
Loose	LAR @ SF 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-4	10–31	L	U50
Loose	DET @ MIN 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-2.5	30–24	W	O48
Loose	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Loose	CIN @ TB 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3	34–23	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF WLLWL	2-3	40%	0-2	2-3
SEA LLWLL	1-4	20%	1-2	0-1

Venue/role: SF away, as favorite; SEA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF OUOOU	3-2	60%	2-3
SEA OOUOO	4-1	80%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 40 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-4-1 56%
SEA	6-4 60%	3-6-1 33%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SF 21–31 SEA SEA leads · 52 games since 2002 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 10 2023	Seattle Seahawks 16 @ San Francisco 49ers 28	SF -14	SEA W
Nov 23 2023	San Francisco 49ers 31 @ Seattle Seahawks 13	SF -7	SF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+3.2 →+3.9▲ 0.7#2

SEA−0.6 →+0.3▲ 0.9#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

SEA

Offense

◀ SF better

#11

#14

Defense

Even

#13

0.0 #16

Turnovers

◀ SF better

−0.6 #28

65 plays #6

Pace

Even

64 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #10	22.8 #19	SF
Yards / play	6.27 #2	4.98 #7	SF
EPA / play	+0.06 #7	−0.06 #12	SF
Success rate	45% #12	41% #13	Even

When SEA has the ball

Even matchup

	SEA off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #11	21.2 #12	Even
Yards / play	5.84 #9	5.56 #20	SEA
EPA / play	−0.01 #16	−0.08 #9	SF
Success rate	47% #8	42% #15	SEA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.6 #8	9.4 #7	16.0 #4	4.8 #16	4.4 #23	9.2 #22
SEA allowed	4.0 #8	8.0 #25	12.0 #20	4.8 #14	6.0 #19	10.8 #18

SEA scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	6.8 #7	5.2 #22	12.0 #15	5.2 #11	6.6 #13	11.8 #11
SF allowed	3.4 #5	4.6 #9	8.0 #4	6.0 #24	7.2 #23	13.2 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.