Chiefs @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sun, Oct 20, 2024, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 7 · at San Francisco 49ers

Weather at kickoff83°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

5-0 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

San Francisco 49ers

3-3 · Power #9

final

Closing spread

SF -2.5

✓ KC W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 22–25 SF

✗ SF (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -0.5

CloseSF -2.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -0.5

2 → SF

CloseSF -2.5

2 pts toward San Francisco 49ers

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -0.5 · closed SF -2.5 · moved 2 toward SFmodel SF -3

model SF -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 55% (98 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -0.5

CloseSF -2.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 2.5-point home favorite against KC, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 28–18 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 47.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.3 against an average line of 2.7; 43.5 points a game (usually 44). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Loose	HOU vs BUF 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & situation	-1.5	23–20	W	U47.5
Loose	KC vs PHI 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2	17–21	L	U46.5
Loose	LAR vs SF 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-3	24–27	L	O47
Loose	BAL vs CIN 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3	19–17	L	U47.5
Loose	KC vs BUF 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2	17–20	L	U49
Loose	KC vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-2	23–20	W	U48.5
Loose	ARI vs IND 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-3	16–22	L	U48
Loose	LAR vs SF 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	20–17	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	—
SF LLWLW	3-3	50%	2-1	3-3

Venue/role: KC away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC OOUUU	2-3	40%	5-0
SF UOOUO	4-2	67%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 52% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	3-6-1 33%
SF	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-3-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KC 7–3 SF KC leads · 10 games since 2000 · KC has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Feb 11 2023	San Francisco 49ers 22 @ Kansas City Chiefs 25	SF -2	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+2.2 →+3.6▲ 1.4#4

SF+3.2 →+4.5▲ 1.3#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

#10

Offense

SF better ▶

#11

Defense

Even

#14

−0.8 #27

Turnovers

SF better ▶

+0.5 #8

64 plays #12

Pace

Even

64 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Even matchup

	KC off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #15	21.7 #12	Even
Yards / play	5.56 #14	5.42 #17	Even
EPA / play	+0.06 #11	−0.06 #11	Even
Success rate	52% #1	42% #15	KC

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #7	17.0 #6	Even
Yards / play	6.53 #2	5.18 #9	SF
EPA / play	+0.11 #6	−0.04 #12	SF
Success rate	46% #8	43% #17	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	3.4 #22	8.4 #11	11.8 #14	5.2 #12	6.6 #11	11.8 #13
SF allowed	2.8 #5	4.3 #5	7.2 #2	7.3 #30	7.2 #25	14.5 #30

SF scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.0 #8	10.0 #4	16.0 #5	5.2 #13	5.8 #20	11.0 #17
KC allowed	5.4 #24	6.0 #12	11.4 #17	1.2 #2	4.4 #10	5.6 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.