Saints @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Mon, Oct 7, 2024, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Kansas City Chiefs

Weather at kickoff62°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

2-2 · Power #25

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

4-0 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -5.5

✓ KC W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 20–26 KC

✓ KC (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -5

CloseKC -5.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -5

0.5 → KC

CloseKC -5.5

0.5 pts toward Kansas City Chiefs

Total

Open42.5

▲ 1

Close43.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -5 · closed KC -5.5 · moved 0.5 toward KCmodel KC -3.5

model KC -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 43% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -5

CloseKC -5.5

Total42.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 5.5-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 26–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 4.9; 46.2 points a game (usually 45.2). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	GB vs MIN 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	29–31	L	O44.5
Loose	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Loose	LAC vs JAX 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	10–38	L	O45.5
Loose	SF vs ARI 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & rest	-5.5	17–31	L	O44.5
Loose	DET vs TB 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar season form & rest	-7.5	16–20	L	U51.5
Loose	BAL vs DET 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	38–6	W	O43.5
Loose	PHI vs DAL 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	28–23	W	O46.5
Loose	BAL vs BUF 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-2.5	35–10	W	U47.5
Loose	NYJ vs NE 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & spread	-6.5	24–3	W	U39.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WWLW	3-1	75%	2-0	2-0
KC WLWL	2-2	50%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: NO away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO OOUO	3-1	75%	2-2
KC OOUU	2-2	50%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 46% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
KC	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	3-6-1 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NO 2–4 KC KC leads · 6 games since 2004 · KC has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO+0.5 →+2.0▲ 1.5#7

KC+2.2 →+2.7▲ 0.5#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ NO better

#12

#10

Defense

◀ NO better

#15

+0.8 #7

Turnovers

◀ NO better

−1.0 #29

61 plays #17

Pace

Even

60 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Advantage: NO offense

	NO off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #1	18.0 #8	NO
Yards / play	5.74 #11	5.36 #14	Even
EPA / play	+0.13 #5	−0.03 #15	NO
Success rate	46% #9	45% #22	NO

When KC has the ball

Even matchup

	KC off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #15	17.5 #7	NO
Yards / play	5.49 #16	5.53 #19	Even
EPA / play	+0.03 #12	−0.15 #6	NO
Success rate	50% #3	38% #6	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	10.3 #1	10.3 #2	20.5 #1	4.0 #19	7.3 #8	11.3 #13
KC allowed	6.8 #25	5.8 #13	12.5 #20	1.5 #2	4.0 #8	5.5 #1

KC scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	2.5 #29	8.3 #8	10.8 #18	6.5 #5	5.8 #17	12.3 #10
NO allowed	2.5 #3	6.5 #16	9.0 #9	3.3 #8	5.3 #17	8.5 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.