Cardinals @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sun, Oct 6, 2024, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 5 · at San Francisco 49ers · Division game

Weather at kickoff99°F7 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

1-3 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

San Francisco 49ers

2-2 · Power #9

final

Closing spread

SF -7.5

✓ ARI W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

ARI 21–28 SF

✗ SF (76%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -7.5

CloseSF -7.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -7.5

no move

CloseSF -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -7.5 · unchangedmodel SF -11.5

model SF -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 44% (62 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -7.5

CloseSF -7.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 7.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARI won 24–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.7 against an average line of 7.1; 49.5 points a game (usually 46.4). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Loose	LAR vs SEA 2021 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form & situation	-7	20–10	W	U47
Loose	DET vs CHI 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-8	31–26	L	O48
Loose	KC vs LV 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7	30–29	L	O51.5
Loose	PHI vs NYG 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-8	38–7	W	U48
Loose	BUF vs DEN 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-7.5	22–24	L	U47
Loose	BAL vs IND 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & rest	-7.5	31–25	L	O46.5
Loose	BUF vs JAX 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar total & situation	-4.5	47–10	W	O46.5
Loose	KC vs CIN 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	25–17	W	U46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI WWLL	2-2	50%	1-0	1-1
SF WLLW	2-2	50%	2-0	2-2

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI OOUO	3-1	75%	1-3
SF OUOO	3-1	75%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 11. 47% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
SF	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-3-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ARI 22–29 SF SF leads · 51 games since 1999 · SF has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 17 2023	San Francisco 49ers 45 @ Arizona Cardinals 29	SF -12	SF W
Oct 1 2023	Arizona Cardinals 16 @ San Francisco 49ers 35	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI−1.7 →−2.1▼ 0.4#27

SF+3.2 →+4.6▲ 1.4#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ARI

Longer bar = better

#12

Offense

SF better ▶

#30

Defense

SF better ▶

#13

0.0 #18

Turnovers

SF better ▶

+0.5 #7

58 plays #24

Pace

SF faster ▶

66 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Even matchup

	ARI off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #13	20.5 #10	Even
Yards / play	5.72 #12	5.37 #18	ARI
EPA / play	+0.03 #11	−0.13 #9	Even
Success rate	45% #13	42% #16	Even

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #8	26.5 #29	SF
Yards / play	6.31 #3	5.79 #28	SF
EPA / play	+0.09 #7	+0.12 #29	SF
Success rate	46% #12	55% #32	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	8.8 #3	5.8 #19	14.5 #7	4.3 #18	5.3 #19	9.5 #21
SF allowed	2.5 #3	5.0 #8	7.5 #3	6.8 #26	6.3 #21	13.0 #26

SF scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	5.8 #10	8.5 #8	14.3 #8	6.0 #7	5.5 #16	11.5 #13
ARI allowed	3.5 #9	9.0 #27	12.5 #19	7.8 #31	6.3 #21	14.0 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.