Cardinals @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sun, Oct 13, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Green Bay Packers

Weather at kickoff52°F8 mphgusts 16Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

2-3 · Power #17

final

Final

Green Bay Packers

3-2 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

GB -6.5

✓ GB W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

ARI 21–27 GB

✓ GB (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -5.5

CloseGB -6.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -5.5

1 → GB

CloseGB -6.5

1 pt toward Green Bay Packers

Total

Open49.5

▼ 3

Close46.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -5.5 · closed GB -6.5 · moved 1 toward GBmodel GB -2.5

model GB -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 43% (54 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -5.5

CloseGB -6.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 6.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 7, covered 2, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 34–13; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 46.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 41%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 6.6; 53.5 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Close	KC vs CIN 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation	-6.5	26–25	L	O47.5
Close	CIN vs LV 2021 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings & season form	-6	26–19	W	U49
Loose	CIN vs ATL 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & rest	-6	35–17	W	O48
Loose	BAL vs CLE 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	23–20	L	U46.5
Loose	LAC vs PIT 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	41–37	L	O47.5
Loose	DEN vs LV 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-5	24–34	L	O45
Loose	BAL vs IND 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & situation	-7.5	31–25	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI WWLLW	3-2	60%	2-0	2-1
GB LWWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI OOUOU	3-2	60%	2-3
GB OUOOU	3-2	60%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 66 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
GB	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARI 5–8 GB GB leads · 13 games since 1999 · GB has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI−1.7 →−1.5▲ 0.2#25

GB+0.5 →+2.0▲ 1.5#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ARI

Longer bar = better

#10

Offense

Even

#12

#28

Defense

GB better ▶

#16

+0.4 #10

Turnovers

GB better ▶

+1.4 #1

58 plays #27

Pace

GB faster ▶

63 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: ARI offense

	ARI off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #12	21.6 #13	Even
Yards / play	5.83 #9	5.40 #15	ARI
EPA / play	+0.05 #9	−0.08 #7	Even
Success rate	45% #11	48% #28	ARI

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #9	25.8 #27	GB
Yards / play	6.23 #4	5.85 #27	GB
EPA / play	+0.03 #13	+0.09 #27	GB
Success rate	40% #23	52% #32	GB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	8.4 #2	5.2 #22	13.6 #9	4.0 #20	6.4 #15	10.4 #17
GB allowed	4.2 #14	8.8 #25	13.0 #21	4.8 #14	3.8 #5	8.6 #9

GB scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	8.0 #4	5.2 #22	13.2 #11	6.2 #7	6.2 #16	12.4 #9
ARI allowed	4.8 #19	9.8 #28	14.6 #28	6.2 #25	5.0 #15	11.2 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.