Packers @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sun, Oct 6, 2024, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Los Angeles Rams

Weather at kickoff86°F7 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

2-2 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Los Angeles Rams

1-3 · Power #16

final

Closing spread

GB -2.5

✓ GB W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 26–23 LAR

✓ GB (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -3.5

CloseGB -2.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -3.5

1 → LAR

CloseGB -2.5

1 pt toward Los Angeles Rams

Total

Open47.5

▲ 2

Close49.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -3.5 · closed GB -2.5 · moved 1 toward LARmodel GB -3

model GB -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 48% (55 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -3.5

CloseGB -2.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 2.5-point road favorite at LAR, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 24–19; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 49.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 3.5; 44.7 points a game (usually 43.7). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Loose	MIA @ LAC 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	17–23	L	U52
Loose	PHI @ WSH 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	20–16	W	U45
Loose	MIA @ DET 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	31–27	W	O52
Loose	LAC @ LV 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest	-3	32–35	L	O49.5
Loose	CIN @ CAR 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Loose	CIN @ DET 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	34–11	W	U46.5
Loose	LV @ NYG 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & season form	-3	16–23	L	U47
Loose	CIN @ CLE 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	13–32	L	U45.5
Loose	PHI @ NYG 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	7–13	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB LWWL	2-2	50%	1-0	0-1
LAR LLWL	1-3	25%	1-0	1-3

Venue/role: GB away, as favorite; LAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB OUOO	3-1	75%	2-2
LAR UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 49% of games with totals 46.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
LAR	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GB 11–4 LAR GB leads · 15 games since 2001 · GB has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 5 2023	Los Angeles Rams 3 @ Green Bay Packers 20	GB -3	GB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+0.5 →+1.8▲ 1.3#8

LAR+0.7 →−1.4▼ 2.1#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

LAR

#11

Offense

◀ GB better

#17

#19

Defense

◀ GB better

#32

+1.5 #1

Turnovers

◀ GB better

−0.3 #23

65 plays #6

Pace

◀ GB faster

60 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #7	28.8 #31	GB
Yards / play	6.36 #2	6.37 #32	GB
EPA / play	+0.03 #12	+0.19 #32	GB
Success rate	39% #24	51% #31	GB

When LAR has the ball

Even matchup

	LAR off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #24	22.3 #18	GB
Yards / play	5.23 #19	5.57 #23	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #17	−0.08 #11	GB
Success rate	47% #8	46% #24	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	8.3 #4	5.8 #20	14.0 #9	4.3 #18	7.8 #6	12.0 #11
LAR allowed	7.0 #27	7.5 #23	14.5 #26	7.8 #32	5.0 #15	12.8 #24

LAR scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	1.5 #31	3.3 #28	4.8 #32	6.0 #7	8.0 #4	14.0 #4
GB allowed	5.3 #21	7.8 #25	13.0 #21	6.0 #24	3.3 #3	9.3 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.