Browns @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2023)

Sun, Dec 24, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

9-5 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Houston Texans

8-6 · Power #13

final

Closing spread

CLE -3

✓ CLE W

Total

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 24–21 HOU

✓ CLE (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLE -3

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCLE -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLE -3

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLE as a 3-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CLE won 36–22; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 40, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0 against an average line of 2.8; 40.4 points a game (usually 45.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NO @ CAR 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	14–22	L	U41
Very close	CLE @ IND 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	39–38	L	O40.5
Very close	TB @ CLE 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	17–23	L	U42
Very close	NO @ MIN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	19–27	L	O41
Very close	CIN @ TEN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	20–16	W	U42.5
Very close	NE @ NYJ 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	22–17	W	U40
Very close	NE @ CAR 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–6	W	U42
Close	SF @ SEA 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar spread	-3	21–13	W	U42.5
Close	NYJ @ SEA 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & situation	-2	6–23	L	U43
Close	MIN @ WSH 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	20–17	P	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE WLLWW	6-3-1	67%	1-3-1	4-1
HOU LLWLW	4-5	44%	2-3	3-1

Venue/role: CLE away, as favorite; HOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE UOOOU	7-3	70%	9-5
HOU UUUOU	3-6	33%	8-6

Went over in Q4. Of 31 earlier overs in games with totals 37–43, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	7-3 70%
HOU	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CLE 7–8 HOU HOU leads · 15 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE+6.0 →+2.5▼ 3.5#8

HOU−2.2 →−0.1▲ 2.1#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

CLE

Longer bar = better

HOU

#25

Offense

HOU better ▶

#15

Defense

◀ CLE better

#16

−0.5 #28

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+0.6 #4

72 plays #1

Pace

◀ CLE faster

64 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	CLE off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #12	21.1 #15	Even
Yards / play	4.62 #29	5.24 #18	HOU
EPA / play	−0.16 #28	−0.04 #17	HOU
Success rate	38% #29	41% #12	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	HOU off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #14	20.6 #12	Even
Yards / play	5.51 #9	4.53 #2	CLE
EPA / play	−0.02 #14	−0.20 #1	CLE
Success rate	41% #22	34% #1	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.4 #23	7.9 #9	11.2 #13	4.6 #14	6.3 #17	10.9 #17
HOU allowed	5.1 #24	3.6 #1	8.6 #4	6.7 #31	5.7 #14	12.4 #27

HOU scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.1 #18	6.3 #18	10.4 #16	4.5 #17	6.7 #12	11.2 #16
CLE allowed	6.1 #31	4.3 #2	10.4 #12	3.9 #11	6.4 #20	10.2 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.