Ravens @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2023)

Mon, Dec 25, 2023, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 16 · at San Francisco 49ers

Weather at kickoff54°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

11-3 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

San Francisco 49ers

11-3 · Power #1

final

Closing spread

SF -6.5

✓ BAL W

Total

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

BAL 22–28 SF

✗ SF (72%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -6.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSF -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -6.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 6.5-point home favorite against BAL, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 33–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 47, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 6.4; 50.5 points a game (usually 47.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	10–27	L	U48.5
Close	GB vs LAR 2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-7	32–18	W	O45
Close	GB vs SF 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-6	10–13	L	U47.5
Close	BAL vs SEA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-6	37–3	W	U44
Close	BUF vs IND 2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-7	27–24	L	O50.5
Close	TB vs PHI 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–15	W	U48
Close	BAL vs CIN 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-6	17–41	L	O46
Close	BUF vs MIN 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	30–33	L	O46
Close	DAL vs PHI 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar total & season form	-4.5	40–34	W	O48
Close	DAL vs LAR 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	43–20	W	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL LWWLW	6-3	67%	2-1	—
SF LWWLW	4-5	44%	0-3	4-5

Venue/role: BAL away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL OOUOU	5-4	56%	11-3
SF UOOUO	5-4	56%	11-3

Went over in Q4. Of 32 earlier overs in games with totals 44–50, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	8-2 80%	6-3 67%	5-4 56%
SF	7-3 70%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BAL 6–1 SF BAL leads · 7 games since 2003 · BAL has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+2.2 →+5.5▲ 3.3#2

SF+7.9 →+7.4▼ 0.5#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

BAL

Longer bar = better

Offense

SF better ▶

Defense

◀ BAL better

+0.4 #8

Turnovers

SF better ▶

+0.9 #1

64 plays #16

Pace

◀ BAL faster

59 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Even matchup

	BAL off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	27.4 #5	16.7 #2	Even
Yards / play	5.81 #4	4.99 #9	BAL
EPA / play	+0.06 #7	−0.10 #4	Even
Success rate	48% #4	40% #7	Even

When SF has the ball

Even matchup

	SF off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	30.4 #2	16.1 #1	Even
Yards / play	6.79 #1	4.41 #1	Even
EPA / play	+0.20 #1	−0.15 #2	Even
Success rate	51% #1	39% #5	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	6.9 #2	8.1 #8	15.0 #5	5.4 #7	6.6 #13	12.0 #8
SF allowed	3.8 #13	5.2 #7	9.0 #5	4.0 #11	3.7 #2	7.7 #2

SF scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.6 #3	9.2 #6	15.9 #3	6.4 #4	8.1 #3	14.5 #1
BAL allowed	1.8 #1	4.4 #2	6.2 #1	2.9 #3	6.8 #22	9.6 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.