Ravens @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Mon, Oct 21, 2024, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weather at kickoff76°F13 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

4-2 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4-2 · Power #7

final

Closing spread

BAL -4.5

✓ BAL W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

BAL 26–22 TB

✓ BAL (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -4.5

CloseBAL -4.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -4.5

no move

CloseBAL -4.5

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -4.5 · unchangedmodel BAL -2.5

model BAL -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–6.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 53% (73 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAL -4.5

CloseBAL -4.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 4.5-point road favorite at TB, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 41–31; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.8 against an average line of 3.2; 51.8 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Close	DET @ DAL 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	47–9	W	O52.5
Close	DET @ ARI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	20–13	W	U51.5
Close	KC @ CIN 2021 · Week 17 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-4	31–34	L	O50.5
Close	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Loose	HOU @ MIN 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-2	7–34	L	U46.5
Loose	KC @ CIN 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	24–27	L	U53.5
Loose	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Loose	LAR @ SF 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-4	10–31	L	U50
Loose	LAR @ MIN 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-3	30–23	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL LWWWL	3-3	50%	2-1	3-2
TB WLWLW	4-2	67%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: BAL away, as favorite; TB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL OOUOO	5-1	83%	4-2
TB UUOOO	4-2	67%	4-2

Went over in Q4. Of 30 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–53.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-3-1 67%
TB	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BAL 6–2 TB BAL leads · 8 games since 2001 · BAL has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+3.1 →+4.8▲ 1.7#1

TB+0.1 →+1.4▲ 1.3#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

BAL

Longer bar = better

Offense

Even

#21

Defense

Even

#20

0.0 #17

Turnovers

TB better ▶

+0.3 #10

66 plays #1

Pace

◀ BAL faster

60 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #4	23.5 #20	BAL
Yards / play	6.93 #1	5.40 #19	BAL
EPA / play	+0.20 #2	−0.01 #17	BAL
Success rate	51% #2	45% #23	BAL

When TB has the ball

Advantage: TB offense

	TB off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #3	24.8 #24	TB
Yards / play	6.10 #5	5.61 #23	TB
EPA / play	+0.08 #6	+0.05 #24	TB
Success rate	49% #4	41% #12	TB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	6.8 #5	8.5 #11	15.3 #6	6.3 #8	7.3 #6	13.7 #8
TB allowed	4.0 #11	10.0 #28	14.0 #27	4.8 #14	3.7 #5	8.5 #8

TB scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	8.8 #2	9.2 #6	18.0 #1	5.0 #14	6.7 #11	11.7 #15
BAL allowed	2.7 #5	6.5 #13	9.2 #7	5.2 #19	10.5 #32	15.7 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.