Falcons @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sun, Oct 27, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Division game

Weather at kickoff80°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

4-3 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4-3 · Power #7

final

Closing spread

ATL -0.5

✓ ATL W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 25–25 TB

✓ ATL (50%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -3

CloseATL -0.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -3

3.5 → ATL

CloseATL -0.5

3.5 pts toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -3 · closed ATL -0.5 · moved 3.5 toward ATLmodel TB -3

model TB -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -3

CloseATL -0.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 0.5-point road favorite at TB, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ATL won 31–26; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 41%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 1.5; 48.4 points a game (usually 42.7). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	JAX @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-1	24–21	W	U48
Loose	BAL @ DAL 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar total & rest	-1.5	28–25	W	O47.5
Loose	HOU @ IND 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.5	23–19	W	U48
Loose	LAC @ JAX 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & rest	-1.5	30–31	L	O46.5
Loose	LV @ JAX 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & rest	-2	20–27	L	U48
Loose	GB @ MIN 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1	33–10	W	O42.5
Loose	CLE @ ATL 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form	-1	20–23	L	U48.5
Loose	DAL @ MIN 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-2	40–3	W	U48.5
Loose	GB @ MIN 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1.5	31–34	L	O47.5
Loose	JAX @ TB 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1.5	12–30	L	U43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLWWL	3-4	43%	2-0	2-3
TB LWLWL	4-3	57%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: ATL away, as favorite; TB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL UOOOU	3-4	43%	4-3
TB UOOOO	5-2	71%	4-3

Went over in Q3. Of 60 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
TB	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ATL 25–25 TB Series tied · 50 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 3 2024	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 @ Atlanta Falcons 36	ATL -2.5	ATL W
Dec 10 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29 @ Atlanta Falcons 25	ATL -1.5	TB W
Oct 22 2023	Atlanta Falcons 16 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13	TB -2.5	ATL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.8 →−0.4▲ 0.4#18

TB+0.1 →+1.2▲ 1.1#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

ATL

Longer bar = better

#10

Offense

TB better ▶

#22

Defense

◀ ATL better

#26

−0.4 #21

Turnovers

TB better ▶

+0.1 #14

62 plays #16

Pace

Even

63 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: ATL offense

	ATL off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #15	26.0 #28	ATL
Yards / play	5.93 #7	5.87 #28	ATL
EPA / play	+0.04 #11	+0.04 #23	ATL
Success rate	47% #7	46% #24	ATL

When TB has the ball

Advantage: TB offense

	TB off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	29.9 #4	24.1 #22	TB
Yards / play	6.11 #5	5.29 #14	TB
EPA / play	+0.09 #6	+0.05 #24	TB
Success rate	49% #4	47% #28	TB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	4.4 #15	8.9 #10	13.3 #11	4.0 #20	5.1 #23	9.1 #23
TB allowed	3.4 #6	11.0 #31	14.4 #27	6.6 #28	4.1 #5	10.7 #14

TB scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	9.0 #2	7.9 #12	16.9 #3	4.3 #17	8.7 #3	13.0 #10
ATL allowed	4.3 #15	10.1 #29	14.4 #27	4.9 #15	4.9 #12	9.7 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.