Jets @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sun, Oct 27, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at New England Patriots · Division game

Weather at kickoff52°F8 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

New York Jets

2-5 · Power #23

final

Final

New England Patriots

1-6 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

NYJ -7.5

✓ NE W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

NYJ 23–16 NE

✗ NYJ (74%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNYJ -6.5

CloseNYJ -7.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNYJ -6.5

1 → NYJ

CloseNYJ -7.5

1 pt toward New York Jets

Total

Open41.5

no move

Close41.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NYJ -6.5 · closed NYJ -7.5 · moved 1 toward NYJmodel NYJ -2.5

model NYJ -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNYJ -6.5

CloseNYJ -7.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NYJ as a 7.5-point road favorite at NE, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 25–22 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 41.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10 against an average line of 6.7; 48.4 points a game (usually 46.5). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Close	ATL @ CAR 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	38–20	W	O45.5
Close	SF @ LAR 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Loose	SEA @ HOU 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	33–13	W	O41.5
Loose	NE @ HOU 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & season form	-9	25–22	L	O39.5
Loose	CIN @ CAR 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Loose	SEA @ LAR 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	27–23	L	O41
Loose	MIN @ CHI 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	29–13	W	U42.5
Loose	DAL @ NYG 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form & situation	-5.5	20–15	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ WLLLL	2-5	29%	1-2	2-2
NE LLLLL	2-5	29%	1-2	2-5

Venue/role: NYJ away, as favorite; NE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ UUUOO	3-4	43%	2-5
NE UOUOO	4-3	57%	1-6

Went over in Q4. Of 77 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
NE	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

NYJ 14–43 NE NE leads · 57 games since 1999 · NE has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 19 2024	New England Patriots 3 @ New York Jets 24	NYJ -6.5	NYJ W
Jan 7 2023	New York Jets 17 @ New England Patriots 3	NE -2.5	NYJ W
Sep 24 2023	New England Patriots 15 @ New York Jets 10	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−1.2 →−0.7▲ 0.5#21

NE−1.8 →−5.2▼ 3.4#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

NYJ

Longer bar = better

#22

Offense

◀ NYJ better

#29

Defense

◀ NYJ better

#25

−0.4 #24

Turnovers

NE better ▶

−0.1 #19

61 plays #20

Pace

◀ NYJ faster

59 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Even matchup

	NYJ off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #24	25.0 #24	Even
Yards / play	5.00 #22	5.72 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.04 #21	+0.08 #28	NYJ
Success rate	41% #20	45% #23	Even

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	NE off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	14.1 #30	20.7 #11	NYJ
Yards / play	4.47 #30	4.81 #4	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.16 #27	−0.06 #12	NYJ
Success rate	38% #29	39% #6	NYJ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	4.4 #15	6.0 #20	10.4 #21	4.1 #18	3.7 #26	7.9 #26
NE allowed	5.3 #22	7.6 #20	12.9 #22	6.1 #24	5.6 #17	11.7 #20

NE scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	3.0 #23	4.6 #28	7.6 #29	2.9 #27	3.7 #26	6.6 #29
NYJ allowed	4.3 #15	7.0 #17	11.3 #17	4.9 #15	4.6 #9	9.4 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.