Texans @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Thu, Oct 31, 2024, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 9 · at New York Jets

Weather at kickoff73°F12 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Houston Texans

6-2 · Power #11

final

Final

New York Jets

2-6 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

✓ NYJ W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 20–22 NYJ

✓ NYJ (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -1

CloseNYJ -2.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -1

3.5 → NYJ

CloseNYJ -2.5

3.5 pts toward New York Jets

Total

Open43.5

no move

Close43.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -1 · closed NYJ -2.5 · moved 3.5 toward NYJmodel HOU -2.5

model HOU -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 54% (101 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -1

CloseNYJ -2.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NYJ as a 2.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NYJ won 21–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.9 against an average line of 2.5; 50.3 points a game (usually 44). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & total	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	ARI vs LAR 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread	-1.5	41–10	W	O47.5
Close	HOU vs BUF 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread	-1.5	23–20	W	U47.5
Loose	MIA vs ARI 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-4.5	27–28	L	O46.5
Loose	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Loose	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & season form	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Loose	CLE vs DEN 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2	17–14	W	U40.5
Loose	ARI vs NO 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	42–34	W	O44
Loose	CLE vs NE 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	15–38	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LWWWL	3-5	38%	2-2	1-0
NYJ LLLLL	2-6	25%	1-2	2-3

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; NYJ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UUOUU	2-6	25%	6-2
NYJ UUOOO	4-4	50%	2-6

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 47% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	3-6-1 33%
NYJ	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

HOU 3–8 NYJ NYJ leads · 11 games since 2003 · NYJ has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 10 2023	Houston Texans 6 @ New York Jets 30	HOU -3	NYJ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+0.1 →+1.8▲ 1.7#10

NYJ−1.2 →−0.8▲ 0.4#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

HOU

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#19

Offense

Even

#21

Defense

Even

+0.5 #10

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

−0.4 #22

65 plays #1

Pace

◀ HOU faster

61 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	HOU off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #14	21.3 #12	Even
Yards / play	5.37 #16	4.69 #2	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	−0.05 #12	NYJ
Success rate	40% #25	40% #6	NYJ

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	NYJ off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #25	22.4 #15	HOU
Yards / play	5.10 #23	4.79 #4	HOU
EPA / play	−0.02 #18	−0.09 #6	HOU
Success rate	42% #16	37% #1	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	6.3 #3	7.8 #14	14.0 #10	3.6 #22	5.9 #17	9.5 #23
NYJ allowed	4.6 #15	6.1 #13	10.8 #16	5.1 #15	5.4 #14	10.5 #14

NYJ scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	4.6 #18	6.1 #21	10.8 #18	4.0 #18	4.0 #27	8.0 #25
HOU allowed	5.9 #28	3.9 #4	9.8 #11	6.4 #26	6.3 #19	12.6 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.