Jaguars @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sun, Nov 3, 2024, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Philadelphia Eagles

Weather at kickoff56°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

2-6 · Power #29

final

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

5-2 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

PHI -7.5

✓ JAX W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 21–28 PHI

✓ PHI (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -7

ClosePHI -7.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -7

0.5 → PHI

ClosePHI -7.5

0.5 pts toward Philadelphia Eagles

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -7 · closed PHI -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward PHImodel PHI -8

model PHI -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 44% (48 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -7

ClosePHI -7.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 7.5-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 28–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6 against an average line of 7.1; 48.2 points a game (usually 46.4). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Very close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & spread	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Close	KC vs CIN 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	26–25	L	O47.5
Close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Close	SF vs DAL 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	30–24	W	O47.5
Close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	PHI vs ATL 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar total & situation	-5.5	21–22	L	U46.5
Close	SF vs ATL 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-8.5	31–13	W	U48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX WLLWW	4-4	50%	2-1	3-1
PHI WLLWW	4-3	57%	0-2	2-3

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX UOOOO	5-3	63%	2-6
PHI UOUUO	3-4	43%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 80 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
PHI	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

JAX 3–5 PHI PHI leads · 8 games since 2002 · JAX has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+0.2 →−2.7▼ 2.9#27

PHI−0.1 →+2.2▲ 2.3#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

JAX

Longer bar = better

PHI

#15

Offense

PHI better ▶

#10

#27

Defense

PHI better ▶

−0.6 #28

Turnovers

Even

−0.6 #27

58 plays #28

Pace

PHI faster ▶

64 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: PHI defense

	JAX off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #21	18.9 #7	PHI
Yards / play	5.77 #10	5.12 #6	Even
EPA / play	+0.01 #14	0.00 #17	Even
Success rate	43% #15	40% #7	PHI

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PHI offense

	PHI off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #10	28.0 #29	PHI
Yards / play	5.70 #12	6.01 #31	PHI
EPA / play	+0.11 #5	+0.17 #32	PHI
Success rate	46% #11	44% #17	PHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	2.5 #27	8.0 #13	10.5 #17	5.6 #11	5.4 #22	11.0 #17
PHI allowed	4.3 #15	6.4 #18	10.7 #15	4.1 #11	4.0 #4	8.1 #7

PHI scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	0.0 #32	9.3 #7	9.3 #22	7.1 #6	8.0 #6	15.1 #3
JAX allowed	5.1 #20	9.6 #27	14.8 #29	3.4 #7	9.9 #31	13.3 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.