Chargers @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sun, Nov 3, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Cleveland Browns

Weather at kickoff59°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

4-3 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Cleveland Browns

2-6 · Power #28

final

Closing spread

LAC -1.5

✓ LAC W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 21–19 CLE

✓ LAC (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -2.5

CloseLAC -1.5

Total39.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -2.5

1 → CLE

CloseLAC -1.5

1 pt toward Cleveland Browns

Total

Open39.5

▲ 2

Close41.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -2.5 · closed LAC -1.5 · moved 1 toward CLEmodel LAC -5

model LAC -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 55% (74 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -2.5

CloseLAC -1.5

Total39.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 1.5-point road favorite at CLE, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LAC won 27–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 2.6; 42.2 points a game (usually 43.2). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Close	BUF @ NYJ 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	23–20	W	O42.5
Close	PIT @ IND 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–27	L	O40.5
Close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	20–30	L	O46.5
Close	GB @ LAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	24–19	W	U49.5
Close	NO @ WSH 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	33–22	W	O43.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	PIT @ LV 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	32–13	W	O36.5
Loose	CAR @ NYG 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	3–25	L	U42.5
Loose	PHI @ WSH 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	20–16	W	U45

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC LWWLW	5-2	71%	2-2	4-1
CLE LLWLW	3-5	38%	1-3	3-2

Venue/role: LAC away, as favorite; CLE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UUOUU	1-6	14%	4-3
CLE UOUUO	3-5	38%	2-6

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 48% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
CLE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAC 11–3 CLE LAC leads · 14 games since 1999 · LAC has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC−0.7 →+1.1▲ 1.8#11

CLE+1.1 →−2.2▼ 3.3#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

LAC

Longer bar = better

CLE

#23

Offense

◀ LAC better

#30

Defense

◀ LAC better

#16

+0.9 #5

Turnovers

◀ LAC better

−0.5 #25

60 plays #24

Pace

CLE faster ▶

64 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	LAC off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #25	23.3 #18	CLE
Yards / play	5.19 #20	5.43 #18	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #18	−0.01 #16	Even
Success rate	39% #28	41% #10	CLE

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	CLE off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #27	13.0 #1	LAC
Yards / play	4.27 #32	5.29 #13	LAC
EPA / play	−0.14 #28	−0.14 #3	LAC
Success rate	36% #32	39% #5	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.1 #12	6.4 #19	11.6 #13	2.7 #30	4.6 #26	7.3 #28
CLE allowed	3.5 #6	9.6 #27	13.1 #26	7.6 #30	2.5 #1	10.1 #11

CLE scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.8 #21	3.5 #29	7.3 #31	3.4 #24	6.6 #14	10.0 #22
LAC allowed	1.3 #1	3.4 #1	4.7 #1	1.7 #2	6.6 #21	8.3 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.