Buccaneers @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Mon, Nov 4, 2024, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Kansas City Chiefs

Weather at kickoff62°F11 mphgusts 19Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4-4 · Power #7

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

7-0 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -8.5

✓ TB W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 18–27 KC

✓ KC (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -8.5

CloseKC -8.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -8.5

no move

CloseKC -8.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

▲ 1

Close45.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -8.5 · unchangedmodel KC -5

model KC -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–10.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 48% (61 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -8.5

CloseKC -8.5

Total44.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as an 8.5-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 30–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6 against an average line of 7.9; 40.4 points a game (usually 46.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC vs NO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	26–8	W	U41.5
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	NYJ vs DEN 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-8.5	9–10	L	U39.5
Close	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Close	BAL vs WSH 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	30–23	L	O50.5
Close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Loose	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Loose	SF vs NO 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar team ratings & rest	-9	13–0	W	U43.5
Loose	KC vs CIN 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7.5	25–17	W	U46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB WLWLL	4-4	50%	2-1	2-3
KC WLWWL	4-3	57%	2-1	3-3

Venue/role: TB away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB OOOOO	6-2	75%	4-4
KC UUUUO	3-4	43%	7-0

Went over in Q4. Of 89 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
KC	10-0 100%	7-3 70%	4-5-1 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TB 6–3 KC TB leads · 9 games since 1999 · KC has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+0.1 →+0.9▲ 0.8#13

KC+2.2 →+4.3▲ 2.1#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ TB better

#28

Defense

KC better ▶

−0.3 #19

Turnovers

◀ TB better

−0.4 #24

64 plays #9

Pace

KC faster ▶

65 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #3	17.6 #3	Even
Yards / play	6.10 #5	5.07 #7	Even
EPA / play	+0.09 #7	−0.07 #8	Even
Success rate	49% #3	44% #18	TB

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #11	26.6 #27	KC
Yards / play	5.35 #16	5.95 #30	KC
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	+0.07 #27	KC
Success rate	52% #1	47% #28	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	8.8 #2	8.1 #10	16.9 #2	3.8 #21	8.8 #2	12.5 #10
KC allowed	5.3 #24	5.1 #7	10.4 #12	2.1 #3	5.0 #11	7.1 #2

KC scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	3.4 #22	9.4 #6	12.9 #12	3.7 #22	8.1 #4	11.9 #17
TB allowed	3.9 #11	11.8 #31	15.6 #31	6.6 #29	3.6 #3	10.3 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.