49ers @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sun, Nov 10, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weather at kickoff85°F10 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

4-4 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4-5 · Power #7

final

Closing spread

SF -6.5

✓ TB W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 28–22 TB

✓ SF (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -6

CloseSF -6.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -6

0.5 → SF

CloseSF -6.5

0.5 pts toward San Francisco 49ers

Total

Open48.5

▲ 2

Close50.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -6 · closed SF -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward SFmodel SF -5

model SF -5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -6

CloseSF -6.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 6.5-point road favorite at TB, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 23–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9 against an average line of 5.6; 55.8 points a game (usually 45.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Loose	DET @ DAL 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	47–9	W	O52.5
Loose	DAL @ JAX 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-6	34–40	L	O48
Loose	LAR @ BAL 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-7	20–19	L	U46.5
Loose	KC @ LAC 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-7	30–27	L	O53
Loose	TB @ NE 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form	-5.5	19–17	L	U49
Loose	KC @ CIN 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-4	31–34	L	O50.5
Loose	TB @ PHI 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-7	28–22	L	U53
Loose	LAR @ NYG 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-8	38–11	W	P49

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF WLWLW	4-4	50%	1-2	4-4
TB LWLLW	5-4	56%	2-3	3-3

Venue/role: SF away, as favorite; TB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF OUOUO	5-3	63%	4-4
TB OOOOO	7-2	78%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 49% of games with totals 47.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-3-1 67%
TB	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SF 9–6 TB SF leads · 15 games since 2002 · TB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 19 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 @ San Francisco 49ers 27	SF -13.5	TB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+3.2 →+4.4▲ 1.2#4

TB+0.1 →+0.8▲ 0.7#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

Offense

Even

#13

Defense

◀ SF better

#28

+0.5 #9

Turnovers

◀ SF better

−0.1 #17

63 plays #11

Pace

◀ SF faster

63 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #7	27.0 #28	SF
Yards / play	6.52 #2	5.77 #27	SF
EPA / play	+0.09 #7	+0.08 #28	SF
Success rate	47% #9	47% #28	SF

When TB has the ball

Advantage: TB offense

	TB off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #5	22.8 #16	TB
Yards / play	6.04 #6	5.28 #11	TB
EPA / play	+0.10 #5	−0.04 #11	TB
Success rate	49% #4	43% #15	TB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	5.3 #10	8.3 #9	13.5 #8	7.3 #5	5.5 #22	12.8 #9
TB allowed	3.8 #11	11.2 #31	15.0 #31	5.9 #23	4.8 #9	10.7 #16

TB scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	7.8 #2	8.0 #11	15.8 #3	4.4 #15	8.6 #3	13.0 #7
SF allowed	2.1 #3	6.3 #14	8.4 #6	5.5 #20	8.9 #29	14.4 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.