Bills @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sun, Nov 10, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Indianapolis Colts

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

7-2 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Indianapolis Colts

4-5 · Power #21

final

Closing spread

BUF -4.5

✓ BUF W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 27–22 IND

✓ BUF (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -5

CloseBUF -4.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -5

0.5 → IND

CloseBUF -4.5

0.5 pts toward Indianapolis Colts

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -5 · closed BUF -4.5 · moved 0.5 toward INDmodel BUF -6.5

model BUF -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–6.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (79 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -5

CloseBUF -4.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 4.5-point road favorite at IND, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 30–20; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 46.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.3 against an average line of 3.6; 55.9 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5
Close	BAL @ CIN 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	41–38	W	O47.5
Close	BUF @ SEA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	31–10	W	U45.5
Close	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total	-2.5	20–30	L	O46.5
Close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	DET @ GB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–14	W	U48.5
Loose	DAL @ JAX 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6	34–40	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF LWWWL	5-4	56%	3-2	4-2
IND WWWWL	7-2	78%	4-0	5-1

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; IND home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF UOOUO	5-4	56%	7-2
IND OUUUU	3-6	33%	4-5

Went over in Q4. Of 82 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
IND	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BUF 6–10 IND IND leads · 16 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.3 →+3.6▲ 1.3#5

IND−0.6 →−0.8▼ 0.2#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

BUF

Longer bar = better

IND

Offense

◀ BUF better

#23

#13

Defense

Even

#15

+1.2 #3

Turnovers

◀ BUF better

+0.2 #14

58 plays #29

Pace

Even

58 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	28.9 #4	21.4 #12	BUF
Yards / play	5.79 #9	5.62 #20	BUF
EPA / play	+0.19 #3	−0.03 #13	BUF
Success rate	47% #7	42% #13	BUF

When IND has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	IND off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #22	19.2 #8	BUF
Yards / play	5.43 #15	5.39 #17	Even
EPA / play	−0.05 #22	−0.03 #14	BUF
Success rate	38% #31	42% #14	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.8 #16	8.7 #8	13.4 #9	8.8 #2	6.7 #12	15.4 #2
IND allowed	3.7 #9	4.7 #5	8.3 #4	5.2 #16	7.9 #25	13.1 #23

IND scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	5.0 #12	2.9 #32	7.9 #27	2.9 #28	10.1 #1	13.0 #7
BUF allowed	5.7 #28	6.3 #17	12.0 #20	2.6 #3	4.7 #8	7.2 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.