Lions @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sun, Nov 10, 2024, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Detroit Lions

7-1 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Houston Texans

6-3 · Power #11

final

Closing spread

DET -4.5

✓ HOU W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 27–23 HOU

✓ DET (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -4

CloseDET -4.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -4

0.5 → DET

CloseDET -4.5

0.5 pts toward Detroit Lions

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -4 · closed DET -4.5 · moved 0.5 toward DETmodel DET -2

model DET -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–6.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 53% (82 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -4

CloseDET -4.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 4.5-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 26–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 3.8; 50.4 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BAL @ TB 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-4.5	41–31	W	O50.5
Close	DET @ GB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	24–14	W	U48.5
Close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Close	DET @ DAL 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	47–9	W	O52.5
Close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Week 8 · close	-2.5	20–30	L	O46.5
Loose	TB @ NO 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-4.5	27–36	L	O48.5
Loose	PHI @ ARI 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & season form	-6	20–17	L	U48.5
Loose	LAR @ SF 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4	10–31	L	U50
Loose	BAL @ LAC 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3	20–10	W	U49
Loose	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar total & situation	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WWWWW	7-1	88%	4-0	6-1
HOU WWWLL	3-6	33%	1-3	1-1

Venue/role: DET away, as favorite; HOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OOOOU	4-4	50%	7-1
HOU UOUUU	2-7	22%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 52% of games with totals 46.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	8-2 80%	9-1 90%	6-4 60%
HOU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	2-7-1 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DET 2–4 HOU HOU leads · 6 games since 2004 · DET has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.6 →+4.5▲ 2.9#2

HOU+0.1 →+1.5▲ 1.4#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

DET

Longer bar = better

HOU

Offense

◀ DET better

#21

#12

Defense

HOU better ▶

+1.4 #1

Turnovers

◀ DET better

+0.4 #9

61 plays #23

Pace

HOU faster ▶

66 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Even matchup

	DET off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #1	22.2 #16	DET
Yards / play	6.08 #4	4.85 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.14 #4	−0.08 #8	Even
Success rate	48% #5	38% #1	Even

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: DET defense

	HOU off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #17	18.5 #7	DET
Yards / play	5.24 #19	5.69 #25	HOU
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	−0.12 #3	DET
Success rate	39% #28	42% #11	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	4.8 #16	14.9 #1	19.6 #1	9.0 #1	2.9 #32	11.9 #14
HOU allowed	5.2 #26	3.4 #3	8.7 #5	6.4 #27	7.1 #23	13.6 #26

HOU scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	5.6 #6	7.7 #11	13.2 #10	3.6 #21	5.6 #21	9.1 #23
DET allowed	4.9 #21	3.4 #2	8.3 #4	5.0 #14	5.3 #16	10.3 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.