Texans @ Cowboys: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Mon, Nov 18, 2024, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Dallas Cowboys

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Houston Texans

6-4 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

Dallas Cowboys

3-6 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

HOU -7.5

✓ HOU W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 27–21 DAL

✓ HOU (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -7

CloseHOU -7.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -7

0.5 → HOU

CloseHOU -7.5

0.5 pts toward Houston Texans

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -7 · closed HOU -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward HOUmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -7

CloseHOU -7.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 7.5-point road favorite at DAL, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 34–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 41.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.1 against an average line of 7.3; 45.1 points a game (usually 46.2). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NYJ @ NE 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	22–25	L	O41.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & rest	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Close	NO @ CAR 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	22–23	L	O43.5
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	ATL @ CAR 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-6.5	38–20	W	O45.5
Close	SF @ LAR 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Close	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Loose	MIN @ JAX 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-7.5	12–7	L	U42.5
Loose	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Loose	NE @ HOU 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-9	25–22	L	O39.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWLLW	4-6	40%	2-3	2-5
DAL WLLLL	2-7	22%	0-4	2-5

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; DAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OUUUU	2-8	20%	6-4
DAL UOOUU	5-4	56%	3-6

Went over in Q4. Of 89 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
DAL	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

HOU 3–5 DAL DAL leads · 8 games since 2002 · DAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+0.1 →+1.3▲ 1.2#11

DAL+2.5 →−1.0▼ 3.5#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

HOU

Longer bar = better

DAL

#22

Offense

◀ HOU better

#26

Defense

◀ HOU better

#28

+0.7 #6

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

−1.1 #31

66 plays #1

Pace

◀ HOU faster

64 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: HOU offense

	HOU off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #16	28.8 #31	HOU
Yards / play	5.10 #21	5.84 #29	HOU
EPA / play	−0.05 #21	+0.13 #31	HOU
Success rate	38% #29	45% #22	DAL

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	DAL off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	19.7 #22	22.6 #18	Even
Yards / play	4.92 #25	4.92 #5	HOU
EPA / play	−0.13 #28	−0.08 #7	HOU
Success rate	40% #27	38% #2	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	6.0 #4	8.2 #11	14.2 #7	3.2 #26	5.0 #26	8.2 #28
DAL allowed	6.8 #32	7.9 #23	14.7 #29	9.1 #32	5.0 #9	14.1 #27

DAL scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	3.6 #22	6.9 #18	10.4 #17	2.4 #31	6.8 #10	9.2 #24
HOU allowed	4.7 #21	3.8 #2	8.5 #5	6.4 #30	7.7 #25	14.1 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.