Cowboys @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sun, Nov 24, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Washington Commanders · Division game

Weather at kickoff54°F6 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

3-7 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

Washington Commanders

7-4 · Power #10

final

Closing spread

WSH -10.5

✓ DAL W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 20–30 WSH

✗ WSH (81%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -9.5

CloseWSH -10.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSH -9.5

1 → WSH

CloseWSH -10.5

1 pt toward Washington Commanders

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSH -9.5 · closed WSH -10.5 · moved 1 toward WSHmodel WSH -3

model WSH -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (33 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -9.5

CloseWSH -10.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSH as a 10.5-point home favorite against DAL, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: DAL won 34–26 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 44.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.9 against an average line of 9.2; 47.5 points a game (usually 47.2). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WSH vs CAR 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	40–7	W	U50.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Loose	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar total & situation	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Loose	LAC vs TEN 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar season form & situation	-8.5	27–17	W	O40.5
Loose	SF vs NE 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread	-10.5	30–13	W	O41.5
Loose	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Loose	PHI vs CLE 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & total	-8.5	20–16	L	U42.5
Loose	SEA vs ARI 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-9.5	20–10	W	U43.5
Loose	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & situation	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Loose	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form & total	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL LLLLL	2-8	20%	2-3	2-6
WSH WWWLL	8-3	73%	4-1	5-1

Venue/role: DAL away, as underdog; WSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL OOUUO	6-4	60%	3-7
WSH UUOOU	7-4	64%	7-4

Went over in Q4. Of 102 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAL	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
WSH	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

DAL 39–16 WSH DAL leads · 55 games since 1999 · DAL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 7 2023	Dallas Cowboys 38 @ Washington Commanders 10	DAL -13	DAL W
Nov 23 2023	Washington Commanders 10 @ Dallas Cowboys 45	DAL -13	DAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL+2.5 →−1.8▼ 4.3#25

WSH−3.1 →+0.7▲ 3.8#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

DAL

Longer bar = better

WSH

#27

Offense

WSH better ▶

#28

Defense

WSH better ▶

#19

−1.1 #31

Turnovers

WSH better ▶

+0.5 #8

66 plays #5

Pace

◀ DAL faster

62 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: WSH defense

	DAL off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #25	22.1 #14	WSH
Yards / play	4.92 #25	5.57 #20	WSH
EPA / play	−0.15 #30	+0.03 #22	WSH
Success rate	39% #28	45% #20	WSH

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #4	29.3 #31	WSH
Yards / play	5.87 #6	5.91 #30	WSH
EPA / play	+0.16 #4	+0.13 #31	WSH
Success rate	48% #4	45% #21	WSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	3.2 #24	7.2 #15	10.4 #17	2.2 #32	6.1 #17	8.3 #28
WSH allowed	3.3 #6	5.1 #5	8.4 #4	4.9 #13	8.8 #28	13.7 #25

WSH scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	5.8 #5	9.5 #5	15.4 #2	6.5 #6	6.1 #20	12.6 #8
DAL allowed	7.5 #32	7.4 #23	14.9 #29	8.5 #32	5.9 #16	14.4 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.