Vikings @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sun, Nov 24, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Chicago Bears · Division game

Weather at kickoff45°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

8-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Chicago Bears

4-6 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

✓ MIN W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 22–20 CHI

✓ MIN (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -3.5

CloseMIN -2.5

Total40.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -3.5

1 → CHI

CloseMIN -2.5

1 pt toward Chicago Bears

Total

Open40.5

▼ 1

Close39.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -3.5 · closed MIN -2.5 · moved 1 toward CHImodel MIN -3.5

model MIN -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 53% (77 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -3.5

CloseMIN -2.5

Total40.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 2.5-point road favorite at CHI, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 30–27; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 39.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 2.9; 41.8 points a game (usually 43.9). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF @ NYJ 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & rest	-1.5	23–20	W	O42.5
Very close	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5
Close	LAC @ CLE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	27–10	W	U41.5
Close	PIT @ IND 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	24–27	L	O40.5
Close	LAC @ DEN 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	23–16	W	O37.5
Close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Close	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5
Close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	20–30	L	O46.5
Close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN LLWLW	7-3	70%	3-2	3-3
CHI WLLLW	6-4	60%	4-1	3-3

Venue/role: MIN away, as favorite; CHI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN OOUUU	3-7	30%	8-2
CHI OUUUU	3-7	30%	4-6

Went over in Q4. Of 79 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–42.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
CHI	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MIN 29–26 CHI MIN leads · 55 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 27 2023	Chicago Bears 12 @ Minnesota Vikings 10	MIN -3	CHI W
Oct 15 2023	Minnesota Vikings 19 @ Chicago Bears 13	MIN -3.5	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN−0.1 →+2.6▲ 2.7#8

CHI−0.3 →−1.4▼ 1.1#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

MIN

Longer bar = better

CHI

#13

Offense

◀ MIN better

#26

Defense

◀ MIN better

#13

+0.4 #9

Turnovers

CHI better ▶

+0.9 #4

62 plays #18

Pace

CHI faster ▶

64 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #10	18.7 #7	Even
Yards / play	5.53 #14	5.60 #24	MIN
EPA / play	0.00 #14	−0.06 #8	CHI
Success rate	45% #12	41% #11	Even

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	CHI off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	19.4 #22	17.0 #4	MIN
Yards / play	4.49 #32	5.05 #6	MIN
EPA / play	−0.08 #25	−0.16 #1	MIN
Success rate	40% #23	37% #1	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	8.2 #1	4.7 #26	12.9 #11	6.2 #9	5.3 #24	11.5 #14
CHI allowed	4.6 #21	6.0 #15	10.6 #13	3.3 #6	4.8 #7	8.1 #4

CHI scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	1.3 #31	7.3 #14	8.6 #25	4.3 #19	6.5 #12	10.8 #16
MIN allowed	2.0 #2	5.6 #8	7.6 #2	3.4 #7	6.0 #18	9.4 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.