Vikings @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sun, Nov 17, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Tennessee Titans

Weather at kickoff66°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

7-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee Titans

2-7 · Power #26

final

Closing spread

MIN -5.5

✓ MIN W

Total

40.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 24–19 TEN

✓ MIN (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -6.5

CloseMIN -5.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -6.5

1 → TEN

CloseMIN -5.5

1 pt toward Tennessee Titans

Total

Open40.5

no move

Close40.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -6.5 · closed MIN -5.5 · moved 1 toward TENmodel MIN -4.5

model MIN -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 47% (56 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -6.5

CloseMIN -5.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 5.5-point road favorite at TEN, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 23–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 40.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 46%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 7.2 against an average line of 5.6; 48.8 points a game (usually 45.3). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5
Close	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Close	PIT @ LV 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	32–13	W	O36.5
Close	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	BAL @ CLE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	24–29	L	O44.5
Close	NE @ MIA 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	24–33	L	O41
Loose	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-2.5	20–30	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WLLWL	6-3	67%	2-2	2-3
TEN LLLLL	1-8	11%	0-4	1-5

Venue/role: MIN away, as favorite; TEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOUU	3-6	33%	7-2
TEN UOOUO	5-4	56%	2-7

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 49% of games with totals 37.5–43.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
TEN	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIN 5–2 TEN MIN leads · 7 games since 2001 · MIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN−0.1 →+2.6▲ 2.7#8

TEN−1.5 →−2.8▼ 1.3#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MIN

Longer bar = better

TEN

#13

Offense

◀ MIN better

#27

Defense

◀ MIN better

#13

+0.4 #9

Turnovers

◀ MIN better

−1.2 #31

61 plays #21

Pace

Even

61 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #10	26.7 #29	MIN
Yards / play	5.62 #13	4.82 #3	TEN
EPA / play	0.00 #15	−0.03 #12	Even
Success rate	46% #13	40% #7	TEN

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	TEN off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	17.4 #27	17.4 #3	MIN
Yards / play	4.81 #27	5.02 #6	MIN
EPA / play	−0.14 #29	−0.16 #1	MIN
Success rate	40% #25	38% #2	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	8.3 #1	4.2 #28	12.6 #13	6.1 #9	5.9 #19	12.0 #14
TEN allowed	4.6 #20	6.7 #18	11.2 #17	7.6 #31	7.9 #25	15.4 #30

TEN scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	5.8 #6	4.3 #27	10.1 #19	4.1 #18	2.9 #32	7.0 #32
MIN allowed	1.9 #2	6.2 #14	8.1 #3	3.0 #6	6.3 #19	9.3 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.