Titans @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sun, Nov 24, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Houston Texans · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

2-8 · Power #26

▲ winner

Final

Houston Texans

7-4 · Power #11

final

Closing spread

HOU -7.5

✓ TEN W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 18–26 HOU

✗ HOU (75%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -8.5

CloseHOU -7.5

Total41.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -8.5

1 → TEN

CloseHOU -7.5

1 pt toward Tennessee Titans

Total

Open41.5

▼ 1

Close40.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -8.5 · closed HOU -7.5 · moved 1 toward TENmodel HOU -8

model HOU -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 42% (55 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -8.5

CloseHOU -7.5

Total41.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 7.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TEN won 32–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 40.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 7.7; 45.6 points a game (usually 46.2). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CHI vs NE 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	3–19	L	U37.5
Close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Close	KC vs DEN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	16–14	L	U41.5
Close	PHI vs CLE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-8.5	20–16	L	U42.5
Close	PIT vs NYG 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-6.5	26–18	W	O37.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Close	LAC vs TEN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-8.5	27–17	W	O40.5
Close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & total	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Close	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN LLLLL	1-9	10%	1-4	1-6
HOU WLLWW	5-6	45%	2-3	3-5

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN OOUOU	5-5	50%	2-8
HOU UUUUO	3-8	27%	7-4

Went over in Q3. Of 86 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–43.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	5-5 50%
HOU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TEN 24–25 HOU HOU leads · 49 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 31 2023	Tennessee Titans 3 @ Houston Texans 26	HOU -5.5	HOU W
Dec 17 2023	Houston Texans 19 @ Tennessee Titans 16	TEN -3	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−1.5 →−2.8▼ 1.3#26

HOU+0.1 →+2.0▲ 1.9#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

TEN

Longer bar = better

HOU

#29

Offense

HOU better ▶

#20

#12

Defense

HOU better ▶

−1.1 #30

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+0.7 #6

61 plays #25

Pace

HOU faster ▶

66 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	TEN off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #28	21.5 #11	HOU
Yards / play	4.86 #27	4.92 #5	HOU
EPA / play	−0.14 #29	−0.11 #4	HOU
Success rate	38% #30	38% #2	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: TEN defense

	HOU off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #14	26.3 #26	HOU
Yards / play	5.22 #19	4.81 #3	TEN
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	−0.03 #11	TEN
Success rate	39% #29	40% #6	TEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	5.5 #8	3.9 #29	9.4 #20	4.4 #17	2.9 #32	7.3 #32
HOU allowed	4.3 #14	4.4 #3	8.6 #5	5.8 #26	7.0 #24	12.8 #23

HOU scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	6.7 #3	7.7 #11	14.5 #5	3.2 #25	5.8 #21	9.0 #24
TEN allowed	4.8 #24	6.9 #17	11.7 #20	7.5 #31	7.1 #25	14.6 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.