Broncos @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sun, Nov 24, 2024, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Las Vegas Raiders · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

6-5 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

2-8 · Power #27

final

Closing spread

DEN -5.5

✓ DEN W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 24–18 LV

✓ DEN (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -4.5

CloseDEN -5.5

Total40.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -4.5

1 → DEN

CloseDEN -5.5

1 pt toward Denver Broncos

Total

Open40.5

▲ 1

Close41.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -4.5 · closed DEN -5.5 · moved 1 toward DENmodel DEN -5

model DEN -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 49% (64 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (34 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -4.5

CloseDEN -5.5

Total40.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 5.5-point road favorite at LV, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 29–19; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.8 against an average line of 6.2; 44.4 points a game (usually 45.3). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	PIT @ LV 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	32–13	W	O36.5
Close	NYJ @ NE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	22–25	L	O41.5
Close	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Close	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5
Close	HOU @ DAL 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Close	GB @ CHI 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	20–19	L	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN WWLWW	8-2	80%	5-1	4-0
LV LWWLL	4-6	40%	2-2	4-5

Venue/role: DEN away, as favorite; LV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN OOOUU	6-4	60%	6-5
LV OUOOO	7-3	70%	2-8

Went over in Q4. Of 94 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	6-4 60%	7-2 78%	5-4 56%
LV	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

DEN 31–23 LV DEN leads · 54 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 6 2024	Las Vegas Raiders 18 @ Denver Broncos 34	DEN -2.5	DEN W
Jan 7 2023	Denver Broncos 14 @ Las Vegas Raiders 27	LV -3	LV W
Sep 10 2023	Las Vegas Raiders 17 @ Denver Broncos 16	DEN -3.5	LV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN−1.0 →+0.9▲ 1.9#12

LV−0.8 →−4.5▼ 3.7#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

DEN

Longer bar = better

#19

Offense

◀ DEN better

#28

Defense

◀ DEN better

#23

0.0 #18

Turnovers

◀ DEN better

−1.5 #32

61 plays #22

Pace

Even

61 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #20	28.5 #29	DEN
Yards / play	5.11 #21	5.30 #12	LV
EPA / play	−0.03 #18	+0.06 #25	DEN
Success rate	42% #18	46% #25	DEN

When LV has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	LV off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #24	16.6 #2	DEN
Yards / play	4.67 #29	4.65 #1	DEN
EPA / play	−0.18 #32	−0.12 #3	DEN
Success rate	40% #25	39% #3	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.5 #28	9.2 #5	11.6 #15	3.5 #23	6.3 #16	9.7 #23
LV allowed	4.7 #22	8.2 #23	12.9 #24	6.0 #28	9.6 #30	15.6 #32

LV scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	4.8 #13	3.1 #32	7.9 #29	2.9 #28	7.9 #6	10.8 #17
DEN allowed	4.3 #18	5.9 #11	10.2 #12	3.0 #5	3.5 #2	6.5 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.