Raiders @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Fri, Nov 29, 2024, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Kansas City Chiefs · Division game

Weather at kickoff35°F3 mphgusts 11DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

2-9 · Power #27

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

10-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -13.5

✓ LV W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

LV 15–28 KC

✓ KC (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -12.5

CloseKC -13.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -12.5

1 → KC

CloseKC -13.5

1 pt toward Kansas City Chiefs

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -12.5 · closed KC -13.5 · moved 1 toward KCmodel KC -11

model KC -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (36 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -12.5

CloseKC -13.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 13.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 19–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 41.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.3 against an average line of 12.8; 48.1 points a game (usually 46.7). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	DEN vs DET 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & situation	-12.5	38–10	W	O42
Loose	PHI vs NYG 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation & season form	-14	33–25	L	O41
Loose	SF vs NE 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form	-10.5	30–13	W	O41.5
Loose	CLE vs DET 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form & rest	-13	13–10	L	U42
Loose	DET vs JAX 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread & rest	-14.5	52–6	W	O47.5
Loose	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & rest	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Loose	SF vs HOU 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form & situation	-13.5	23–7	W	U44.5
Loose	SF vs ARI 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar situation & rest	-14	38–13	W	O40.5
Loose	LAR vs JAX 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form & situation	-13	37–7	W	U47.5
Loose	WSH vs DAL 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & season form	-10.5	26–34	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV WWLLL	4-7	36%	2-4	4-6
KC LLLLL	4-7	36%	2-3	3-6

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV UOOOO	8-3	73%	2-9
KC OOUOO	6-5	55%	10-1

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 50% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
KC	9-1 90%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

LV 19–36 KC KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 27 2024	Kansas City Chiefs 27 @ Las Vegas Raiders 20	KC -8.5	LV W
Dec 25 2023	Las Vegas Raiders 20 @ Kansas City Chiefs 14	KC -11	LV W
Nov 26 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 31 @ Las Vegas Raiders 17	KC -9	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−0.8 →−4.7▼ 3.9#29

KC+2.2 →+3.6▲ 1.4#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

#28

Offense

KC better ▶

#23

Defense

KC better ▶

#12

−1.5 #32

Turnovers

KC better ▶

−0.5 #23

62 plays #13

Pace

KC faster ▶

66 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	LV off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #26	19.8 #8	KC
Yards / play	4.71 #28	5.15 #8	KC
EPA / play	−0.19 #32	+0.01 #16	KC
Success rate	40% #26	44% #17	KC

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #10	28.5 #30	KC
Yards / play	5.21 #19	5.27 #11	LV
EPA / play	+0.10 #7	+0.06 #25	KC
Success rate	51% #1	46% #26	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	4.4 #14	4.0 #30	8.4 #26	2.6 #30	7.7 #7	10.4 #20
KC allowed	4.2 #17	6.6 #15	10.8 #14	2.9 #4	6.1 #16	9.0 #8

KC scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	3.4 #22	9.7 #4	13.1 #10	3.3 #25	7.6 #8	10.9 #16
LV allowed	4.5 #20	8.0 #23	12.5 #23	6.1 #28	9.9 #31	16.0 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.