Chargers @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sun, Dec 8, 2024, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Kansas City Chiefs · Division game

Weather at kickoff49°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

8-4 · Power #13

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

11-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -5.5

✓ LAC W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 17–23 KC

✓ KC (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -3.5

CloseKC -5.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -3.5

2 → KC

CloseKC -5.5

2 pts toward Kansas City Chiefs

Total

Open43.5

no move

Close43.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -3.5 · closed KC -5.5 · moved 2 toward KCmodel KC -3.5

model KC -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 50% (66 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 42% (26 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -3.5

CloseKC -5.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 5.5-point home favorite against LAC, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: KC won 19–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.2 against an average line of 5.3; 51 points a game (usually 45.4). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar season form & rest	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Close	CIN vs PIT 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	38–44	L	O46.5
Close	KC vs NO 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	26–13	W	U43.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Close	BUF vs SF 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	35–10	W	O44.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWWLW	9-3	75%	4-2	1-2
KC LLLLL	4-8	33%	2-4	3-7

Venue/role: LAC away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UOOOU	4-8	33%	8-4
KC OUOOU	6-6	50%	11-1

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 50% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
KC	9-1 90%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

LAC 23–32 KC KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 29 2024	Kansas City Chiefs 17 @ Los Angeles Chargers 10	KC -7.5	LAC W
Jan 7 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 13 @ Los Angeles Chargers 12	LAC -3.5	KC W
Oct 22 2023	Los Angeles Chargers 17 @ Kansas City Chiefs 31	KC -5.5	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC−0.7 →+1.0▲ 1.7#13

KC+2.2 →+3.0▲ 0.8#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

LAC

Longer bar = better

#20

Offense

KC better ▶

#11

Defense

◀ LAC better

#13

+0.9 #3

Turnovers

◀ LAC better

−0.3 #23

59 plays #30

Pace

KC faster ▶

66 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	LAC off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #19	19.6 #7	KC
Yards / play	5.32 #17	5.30 #10	KC
EPA / play	−0.01 #16	+0.02 #18	Even
Success rate	39% #28	44% #15	KC

When KC has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	KC off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #11	15.7 #1	LAC
Yards / play	5.19 #22	5.24 #7	LAC
EPA / play	+0.08 #8	−0.08 #5	Even
Success rate	49% #2	40% #5	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.3 #10	8.1 #9	13.3 #9	3.3 #26	5.0 #26	8.3 #30
KC allowed	3.8 #11	6.3 #11	10.2 #11	3.3 #4	6.2 #15	9.4 #8

KC scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	3.3 #25	9.5 #3	12.8 #10	3.5 #25	7.3 #10	10.8 #17
LAC allowed	2.2 #1	3.7 #1	5.8 #1	3.2 #3	6.7 #19	9.8 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.