Falcons @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sun, Dec 8, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Minnesota Vikings

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

6-6 · Power #20

final

Final

Minnesota Vikings

10-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIN -5.5

✓ MIN W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 21–26 MIN

✓ MIN (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -4.5

CloseMIN -5.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -4.5

1 → MIN

CloseMIN -5.5

1 pt toward Minnesota Vikings

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -4.5 · closed MIN -5.5 · moved 1 toward MINmodel MIN -3.5

model MIN -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 48% (62 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (40 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -4.5

CloseMIN -5.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 5.5-point home favorite against ATL, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 42–21; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 64%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 10.9 against an average line of 5.2; 48.3 points a game (usually 45.4). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & total	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5
Very close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Very close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Very close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Very close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Close	DEN vs CLE 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	41–32	W	O41.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL WWLLL	5-7	42%	3-2	1-3
MIN WLWWL	8-4	67%	3-2	4-4

Venue/role: ATL away, as underdog; MIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OUUUU	4-8	33%	6-6
MIN UUUOU	4-8	33%	10-2

Went over in Q4. Of 98 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
MIN	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ATL 6–9 MIN MIN leads · 15 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 5 2023	Minnesota Vikings 31 @ Atlanta Falcons 28	ATL -4.5	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.8 →−0.9▼ 0.1#20

MIN−0.1 →+2.2▲ 2.3#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

ATL

Longer bar = better

MIN

#13

Offense

Even

#12

#23

Defense

MIN better ▶

−0.5 #25

Turnovers

MIN better ▶

+0.4 #8

63 plays #13

Pace

◀ ATL faster

61 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	ATL off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #19	18.3 #5	MIN
Yards / play	5.72 #11	5.11 #6	MIN
EPA / play	+0.01 #12	−0.12 #3	MIN
Success rate	47% #9	39% #2	MIN

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN offense

	MIN off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #9	24.3 #22	MIN
Yards / play	5.64 #12	5.49 #19	MIN
EPA / play	0.00 #14	+0.05 #25	MIN
Success rate	45% #11	46% #26	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	4.6 #14	8.0 #10	12.6 #11	4.8 #14	3.5 #32	8.3 #29
MIN allowed	2.5 #2	5.4 #7	7.9 #3	3.7 #6	6.7 #19	10.3 #13

MIN scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	7.1 #1	5.3 #25	12.4 #12	6.6 #7	5.5 #22	12.1 #11
ATL allowed	4.2 #16	10.4 #31	14.6 #31	4.6 #9	5.1 #10	9.7 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.