Jaguars @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sun, Dec 8, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Tennessee Titans · Division game

Weather at kickoff51°F7 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

2-10 · Power #29

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee Titans

3-9 · Power #26

final

Closing spread

TEN -3.5

✓ JAX W

Total

40.5

▼ Under · 16 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 21–25 TEN

✗ TEN (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEN -4.5

CloseTEN -3.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEN -4.5

1 → JAX

CloseTEN -3.5

1 pt toward Jacksonville Jaguars

Total

Open40.5

no move

Close40.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEN -4.5 · closed TEN -3.5 · moved 1 toward JAXmodel TEN -1

model TEN -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 53% (116 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 43% (28 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEN -4.5

CloseTEN -3.5

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEN as a 3.5-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 10–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 16 points stayed under 40.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 3.7; 42 points a game (usually 44). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEN vs NE 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	20–17	L	U38.5
Close	DAL vs NYG 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & total	-4.5	27–20	W	O39.5
Close	CHI vs LAR 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	24–18	W	O40.5
Close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Close	IND vs MIA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread	-3.5	16–10	W	U43.5
Loose	JAX vs IND 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	37–34	L	O44.5
Loose	NE vs WSH 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–20	L	U40
Loose	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Loose	SEA vs MIA 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar total & spread	-4.5	24–3	W	U41.5
Loose	IND vs TEN 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4	17–24	L	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX WWWLW	7-5	58%	3-2	6-2
TEN LLLWL	2-10	17%	0-5	0-3

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; TEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX OOUOU	7-5	58%	2-10
TEN UOUOO	7-5	58%	3-9

Stayed under: it needed 35 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 37.5–43.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
TEN	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

JAX 23–32 TEN TEN leads · 55 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 7 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 20 @ Tennessee Titans 28	JAX -3.5	TEN W
Nov 19 2023	Tennessee Titans 14 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 34	JAX -6.5	JAX W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+0.2 →−3.8▼ 4.0#28

TEN−1.5 →−2.9▼ 1.4#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

JAX

Longer bar = better

TEN

#22

Offense

◀ JAX better

#29

#30

Defense

TEN better ▶

#13

−0.8 #30

Turnovers

Even

−1.1 #31

56 plays #32

Pace

TEN faster ▶

60 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: TEN defense

	JAX off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #25	27.7 #27	Even
Yards / play	5.32 #17	4.94 #4	TEN
EPA / play	−0.04 #21	−0.01 #11	TEN
Success rate	40% #24	41% #10	TEN

When TEN has the ball

Even matchup

	TEN off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	18.4 #28	28.3 #29	Even
Yards / play	4.93 #26	6.09 #32	TEN
EPA / play	−0.14 #30	+0.17 #32	Even
Success rate	38% #32	46% #27	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	2.5 #28	5.8 #21	8.3 #26	5.3 #12	5.3 #24	10.7 #18
TEN allowed	6.3 #30	7.2 #20	13.5 #27	6.8 #31	7.3 #23	14.2 #26

TEN scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	5.4 #9	4.7 #27	10.1 #19	4.4 #18	3.7 #31	8.1 #32
JAX allowed	4.8 #25	9.4 #26	14.3 #30	5.0 #15	9.0 #27	14.0 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.