Jets @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Sun, Dec 15, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Jacksonville Jaguars

Weather at kickoff71°F10 mphgusts 22Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New York Jets

3-10 · Power #23

▲ winner

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

3-10 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

NYJ -3.5

✓ NYJ W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

NYJ 23–20 JAX

✓ NYJ (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNYJ -3.5

CloseNYJ -3.5

Total40.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNYJ -3.5

no move

CloseNYJ -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open40.5

▲ 1

Close41.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NYJ -3.5 · unchangedmodel NYJ -1.5

model NYJ -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (80 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNYJ -3.5

CloseNYJ -3.5

Total40.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NYJ as a 3.5-point road favorite at JAX, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NYJ won 32–25; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.5 against an average line of 3.7; 42.3 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Very close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Close	CLE @ LV 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	16–20	L	U38.5
Close	PIT @ LV 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	32–13	W	O36.5
Close	NO @ NYG 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	14–11	L	U41.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	HOU @ NE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	41–21	W	O39.5
Close	DEN @ LV 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-5.5	29–19	W	O41.5
Close	LAC @ CLE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	27–10	W	U41.5
Close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ WLLLW	4-9	31%	2-4	3-6
JAX WWLWW	8-5	62%	3-2	7-2

Venue/role: NYJ away, as favorite; JAX home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ UUOOO	7-6	54%	3-10
JAX OUOUU	7-6	54%	3-10

Went over in Q4. Of 102 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
JAX	3-7 30%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NYJ 7–9 JAX JAX leads · 16 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−1.2 →−1.9▼ 0.7#22

JAX+0.2 →−3.7▼ 3.9#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

NYJ

Longer bar = better

JAX

#22

Offense

Even

#23

#13

Defense

◀ NYJ better

#30

−0.2 #20

Turnovers

◀ NYJ better

−0.8 #30

60 plays #25

Pace

◀ NYJ faster

56 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: NYJ offense

	NYJ off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #25	26.5 #28	Even
Yards / play	5.04 #24	5.97 #32	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.03 #21	+0.15 #32	NYJ
Success rate	42% #17	45% #26	NYJ

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	JAX off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #26	23.1 #20	NYJ
Yards / play	5.30 #18	4.92 #3	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.04 #23	+0.01 #17	NYJ
Success rate	41% #24	41% #10	NYJ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	4.4 #15	5.8 #22	10.2 #19	4.5 #16	4.5 #28	9.1 #26
JAX allowed	4.7 #21	8.7 #26	13.4 #28	4.8 #14	8.3 #27	13.2 #25

JAX scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	2.3 #28	5.4 #25	7.7 #30	4.9 #13	5.7 #22	10.6 #17
NYJ allowed	4.6 #20	7.8 #23	12.4 #20	4.2 #7	6.1 #14	10.2 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.