Patriots @ Cardinals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Sun, Dec 15, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Arizona Cardinals

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New England Patriots

3-10 · Power #30

final

Final

Arizona Cardinals

6-7 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARI -5.5

✓ ARI W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 19–24 ARI

✓ ARI (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARI -6.5

CloseARI -5.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARI -6.5

1 → NE

CloseARI -5.5

1 pt toward New England Patriots

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARI -6.5 · closed ARI -5.5 · moved 1 toward NEmodel ARI -6

model ARI -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 49% (67 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 43% (30 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARI -6.5

CloseARI -5.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARI as a 5.5-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 10, covered 9, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: ARI won 30–17; the favorite covered, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 46.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 65%

Favorite covered

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 46%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Wins above normal, covers above normal, overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 14.7 against an average line of 5.8; 54.1 points a game (usually 45.4). Of the 8 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Close	TB vs LV 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	28–13	W	U47.5
Close	MIA vs NYJ 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings & total	-6.5	32–26	L	O45.5
Close	MIA vs NE 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & total	-7.5	34–15	W	O45.5
Close	SF vs DAL 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	30–24	W	O47.5
Close	IND vs MIA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	16–10	W	U43.5
Close	SF vs CHI 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation	-3.5	38–13	W	O43.5
Close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Close	CIN vs LV 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-7.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Close	DEN vs CLE 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation	-6.5	41–32	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE WWLLW	6-7	46%	3-3	6-7
ARI WWLWL	8-5	62%	4-3	2-3

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; ARI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UUOOO	8-5	62%	3-10
ARI UUUUO	6-7	46%	6-7

Went over in Q4. Of 104 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
ARI	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NE 6–2 ARI NE leads · 8 games since 1999 · ARI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE−1.8 →−4.5▼ 2.7#31

ARI−1.7 →−0.1▲ 1.6#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

Longer bar = better

ARI

#26

Offense

ARI better ▶

#12

#23

Defense

Even

#22

−0.5 #25

Turnovers

ARI better ▶

−0.2 #19

62 plays #20

Pace

◀ NE faster

59 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #31	22.2 #13	ARI
Yards / play	4.72 #29	5.51 #19	ARI
EPA / play	−0.08 #26	+0.05 #25	Even
Success rate	42% #18	48% #31	NE

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: ARI offense

	ARI off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #18	23.6 #21	Even
Yards / play	5.86 #8	5.50 #18	ARI
EPA / play	+0.04 #11	+0.05 #27	ARI
Success rate	47% #9	45% #25	ARI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	3.4 #24	4.5 #28	7.8 #29	2.8 #28	6.3 #19	9.2 #26
ARI allowed	4.9 #24	8.0 #24	12.9 #25	4.9 #14	4.4 #5	9.3 #7

ARI scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	5.6 #8	6.6 #18	12.2 #14	4.8 #16	4.8 #27	9.6 #24
NE allowed	4.4 #16	8.3 #26	12.7 #23	5.6 #26	4.8 #7	10.5 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.