Steelers @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Sun, Dec 15, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Philadelphia Eagles

Weather at kickoff36°F6 mphgusts 11DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

10-3 · Power #12

final

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

11-2 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

PHI -5.5

✓ PHI W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 19–24 PHI

✓ PHI (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -4.5

ClosePHI -5.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -4.5

1 → PHI

ClosePHI -5.5

1 pt toward Philadelphia Eagles

Total

Open44.5

▼ 1

Close43.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -4.5 · closed PHI -5.5 · moved 1 toward PHImodel PHI -4.5

model PHI -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 49% (67 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (46 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -4.5

ClosePHI -5.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 5.5-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 27–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 43.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 65%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 10.7 against an average line of 5.2; 46.3 points a game (usually 45.4). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs LAC 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	19–17	L	U43.5
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	BUF vs SF 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	35–10	W	O44.5
Close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT WWLWW	9-3	75%	4-2	5-0
PHI WWWWL	8-5	62%	1-4	5-5

Venue/role: PIT away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT OUOOU	7-5	58%	10-3
PHI UUOUU	5-8	38%	11-2

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
PHI	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

PIT 3–5 PHI PHI leads · 8 games since 2000 · PHI has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−0.4 →+2.7▲ 3.1#8

PHI−0.1 →+4.4▲ 4.5#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

PIT

Longer bar = better

PHI

#17

Offense

PHI better ▶

Defense

PHI better ▶

+1.3 #1

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

+0.3 #10

65 plays #3

Pace

◀ PIT faster

64 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: PHI defense

	PIT off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #10	18.0 #4	PHI
Yards / play	5.18 #22	4.74 #1	PHI
EPA / play	0.00 #15	−0.07 #6	PHI
Success rate	41% #22	40% #3	PHI

When PHI has the ball

Even matchup

	PHI off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #8	18.3 #5	Even
Yards / play	5.76 #12	5.26 #8	Even
EPA / play	+0.12 #5	−0.08 #5	Even
Success rate	46% #10	43% #11	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	3.5 #23	6.7 #17	10.2 #19	6.9 #4	7.8 #7	14.7 #5
PHI allowed	4.5 #19	4.5 #3	9.0 #8	4.7 #11	4.3 #4	9.0 #6

PHI scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	1.3 #32	9.4 #3	10.7 #18	6.7 #6	8.9 #2	15.6 #2
PIT allowed	5.5 #27	4.9 #6	10.5 #12	1.2 #1	6.6 #19	7.8 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.