Colts @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Sun, Dec 15, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Denver Broncos

Weather at kickoff51°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

6-7 · Power #21

final

Final

Denver Broncos

8-5 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

✓ DEN W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 21–25 DEN

✓ DEN (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -4.5

CloseDEN -3.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEN -4.5

1 → IND

CloseDEN -3.5

1 pt toward Indianapolis Colts

Total

Open43.5

no move

Close43.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEN -4.5 · closed DEN -3.5 · moved 1 toward INDmodel DEN -4

model DEN -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 43% (30 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEN -4.5

CloseDEN -3.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 3.5-point home favorite against IND, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 31–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.8 against an average line of 4.2; 46.4 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	SF vs CHI 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	38–13	W	O43.5
Close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Close	IND vs MIA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	16–10	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND LLWLL	8-5	62%	4-3	6-3
DEN LWWWW	10-2	83%	4-1	6-0

Venue/role: IND away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND UOOUO	6-7	46%	6-7
DEN OUUOO	8-4	67%	8-5

Went over in Q4. Of 118 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
DEN	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

IND 14–6 DEN IND leads · 20 games since 2001 · IND has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−0.6 →−1.6▼ 1.0#21

DEN−1.0 →+0.8▲ 1.8#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

IND

Longer bar = better

DEN

#23

Offense

DEN better ▶

#17

#18

Defense

DEN better ▶

−0.2 #16

Turnovers

DEN better ▶

+0.2 #12

58 plays #31

Pace

DEN faster ▶

61 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	IND off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #22	18.0 #3	DEN
Yards / play	5.35 #16	4.87 #2	DEN
EPA / play	−0.06 #24	−0.13 #1	DEN
Success rate	39% #29	39% #2	DEN

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #13	22.9 #19	DEN
Yards / play	5.21 #19	5.65 #24	DEN
EPA / play	−0.02 #17	0.00 #14	Even
Success rate	42% #19	44% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	4.7 #14	4.3 #30	9.0 #25	2.5 #31	9.1 #1	11.5 #13
DEN allowed	4.2 #12	6.8 #17	10.9 #15	3.2 #3	3.9 #2	7.1 #1

DEN scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.8 #27	9.3 #5	12.2 #15	4.2 #20	7.1 #11	11.3 #15
IND allowed	3.8 #10	6.4 #12	10.2 #11	4.9 #14	7.8 #26	12.8 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.