Chiefs @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Sun, Dec 15, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Cleveland Browns

Weather at kickoff40°F17 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

12-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Cleveland Browns

3-10 · Power #28

final

Closing spread

KC -3.5

✓ KC W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 21–17 CLE

✓ KC (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -6.5

CloseKC -3.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -6.5

3 → CLE

CloseKC -3.5

3 pts toward Cleveland Browns

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -6.5 · closed KC -3.5 · moved 3 toward CLEmodel KC -5.5

model KC -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (80 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -6.5

CloseKC -3.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 3.5-point road favorite at CLE, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 21–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 28 points stayed under 41.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 3.4; 46 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Close	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	MIN @ CHI 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	30–27	W	O39.5
Close	HOU @ JAX 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	23–20	L	U44.5
Close	LAC @ CLE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-1.5	27–10	W	U41.5
Close	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Close	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5
Loose	PIT @ CLE 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-3.5	19–24	L	O36.5
Loose	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC LLLLL	4-9	31%	2-4	3-8
CLE LLWLL	4-9	31%	2-4	4-5

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; CLE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC UOOUU	6-7	46%	12-1
CLE UOOOU	6-7	46%	3-10

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 49% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	9-1 90%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
CLE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

KC 9–3 CLE KC leads · 12 games since 2002 · KC has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+2.2 →+3.0▲ 0.8#7

CLE+1.1 →−2.8▼ 3.9#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

Longer bar = better

CLE

#11

Offense

◀ KC better

#30

#13

Defense

◀ KC better

#19

−0.3 #22

Turnovers

◀ KC better

−0.8 #29

66 plays #2

Pace

Even

66 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #11	25.8 #26	KC
Yards / play	5.14 #23	5.68 #26	Even
EPA / play	+0.08 #9	+0.02 #18	KC
Success rate	49% #1	40% #5	Even

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	CLE off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	17.8 #29	19.4 #7	KC
Yards / play	4.71 #30	5.28 #10	KC
EPA / play	−0.12 #29	+0.02 #21	KC
Success rate	38% #31	44% #14	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	3.3 #25	9.5 #3	12.8 #9	3.2 #27	7.2 #11	10.4 #20
CLE allowed	4.0 #12	9.5 #28	13.5 #29	6.8 #31	5.5 #12	12.2 #20

CLE scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.8 #20	3.9 #32	7.8 #29	3.3 #26	6.8 #14	10.1 #21
KC allowed	3.5 #9	5.8 #10	9.4 #8	4.1 #6	5.9 #13	10.0 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.