Texans @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2024)

Sat, Dec 21, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Kansas City Chiefs

Weather at kickoff31°F2 mphgusts 10DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Houston Texans

9-5 · Power #11

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

13-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -3.5

✓ KC W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 20–23 KC

✓ KC (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -1

CloseKC -3.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -1

4.5 → KC

CloseKC -3.5

4.5 pts toward Kansas City Chiefs

Total

Open41.5

▲ 1

Close42.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -1 · closed KC -3.5 · moved 4.5 toward KCmodel KC -4.5

model KC -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (126 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -1

CloseKC -3.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 3.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 27–19; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 42.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 3.4; 41.9 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NYJ vs HOU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	21–13	W	U43.5
Close	KC vs LAC 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings & total	-5.5	19–17	L	U43.5
Close	NO vs ATL 2023 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	48–17	W	O41.5
Loose	NE vs MIA 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form & rest	-3	23–21	L	O41.5
Loose	DEN vs CIN 2021 · Week 15 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	10–15	L	U44
Loose	TB vs NO 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-3	17–16	L	U41
Loose	GB vs TB 2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4	20–34	L	O41
Loose	TEN vs MIA 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar situation & season form	-3	34–3	W	U41
Loose	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5
Loose	PHI vs TEN 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & rest	-4.5	35–10	W	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWLLW	6-8	43%	3-4	2-1
KC LLLLW	5-9	36%	2-5	4-8

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UOOUU	4-10	29%	9-5
KC OOUUU	6-8	43%	13-1

Went over in Q4. Of 119 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
KC	9-1 90%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

HOU 6–11 KC KC leads · 17 games since 2003 · HOU has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+0.1 →+1.3▲ 1.2#11

KC+2.2 →+3.3▲ 1.1#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

HOU

Longer bar = better

#22

Offense

KC better ▶

#12

Defense

◀ HOU better

+0.9 #3

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

+0.1 #13

63 plays #11

Pace

KC faster ▶

66 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	HOU off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #13	18.5 #4	KC
Yards / play	5.11 #21	5.22 #7	KC
EPA / play	−0.05 #23	−0.02 #10	KC
Success rate	39% #30	43% #11	KC

When KC has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	KC off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #12	21.4 #9	Even
Yards / play	5.06 #24	4.93 #3	HOU
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	−0.10 #3	HOU
Success rate	49% #3	38% #1	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	6.0 #6	7.9 #9	13.9 #6	4.2 #20	5.3 #27	9.5 #25
KC allowed	3.3 #6	5.4 #8	8.7 #5	4.3 #9	5.5 #10	9.8 #9

KC scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	3.6 #20	9.4 #4	12.9 #9	3.5 #27	6.6 #18	10.1 #21
HOU allowed	4.1 #11	4.8 #3	8.9 #6	5.4 #21	7.1 #23	12.6 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.