Jaguars @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2024)

Sun, Dec 22, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Las Vegas Raiders

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

3-11 · Power #29

final

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

2-12 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

LV -2.5

✓ LV W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 22–24 LV

✓ LV (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLV -1

CloseLV -2.5

Total39.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLV -1

1.5 → LV

CloseLV -2.5

1.5 pts toward Las Vegas Raiders

Total

Open39.5

▲ 2

Close41.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LV -1 · closed LV -2.5 · moved 1.5 toward LVmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 52% (126 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (51 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLV -1

CloseLV -2.5

Total39.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LV as a 2.5-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LV won 19–14; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 41.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.3 against an average line of 3.4; 41.3 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DAL vs NYG 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	27–20	W	O39.5
Close	TEN vs JAX 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	6–10	L	U40.5
Close	TEN vs NE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	20–17	L	U38.5
Close	CAR vs DAL 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	14–30	L	O41.5
Close	CHI vs LAR 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–18	W	O40.5
Close	MIA vs ARI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest	-4.5	27–28	L	O46.5
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	NE vs WSH 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	17–20	L	U40
Close	MIA vs TEN 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-2.5	12–31	L	O37.5
Loose	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX WLWWL	8-6	57%	4-2	7-3
LV LLWLL	5-9	36%	2-4	0-1

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; LV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX UOUUO	8-6	57%	3-11
LV OOUUU	8-6	57%	2-12

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 50% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
LV	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

JAX 6–4 LV JAX leads · 10 games since 2004 · JAX has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+0.2 →−3.9▼ 4.1#28

LV−0.8 →−4.4▼ 3.6#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

JAX

Longer bar = better

#20

Offense

◀ JAX better

#29

Defense

LV better ▶

#20

−0.9 #29

Turnovers

Even

−1.4 #32

58 plays #32

Pace

LV faster ▶

63 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #26	26.9 #27	Even
Yards / play	5.32 #16	5.32 #12	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #19	+0.03 #23	Even
Success rate	42% #19	44% #19	Even

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	17.5 #29	26.9 #28	Even
Yards / play	4.78 #29	6.05 #32	Even
EPA / play	−0.17 #32	+0.16 #32	Even
Success rate	40% #26	45% #24	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	2.6 #29	5.4 #25	8.1 #27	4.8 #14	5.9 #20	10.7 #18
LV allowed	5.3 #25	6.9 #18	12.2 #20	5.4 #22	9.2 #31	14.6 #31

LV scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	3.4 #21	4.3 #30	7.7 #28	2.6 #31	7.2 #11	9.8 #22
JAX allowed	4.9 #23	8.1 #26	12.9 #24	5.2 #19	8.8 #27	14.0 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.