Raiders @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2024)

Sun, Dec 29, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at New Orleans Saints

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

3-12 · Power #27

▲ winner

Final

New Orleans Saints

5-10 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

LV -2.5

✓ LV W

Total

37.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

LV 23–22 NO

✓ LV (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNO -2.5

CloseLV -2.5

Total39.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNO -2.5

5 → LV

CloseLV -2.5

5 pts toward Las Vegas Raiders

Total

Open39.5

▼ 2

Close37.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NO -2.5 · closed LV -2.5 · moved 5 toward LVmodel NO -4

model NO -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 55% (92 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNO -2.5

CloseLV -2.5

Total39.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LV as a 2.5-point road favorite at NO, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LV won 25–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 37.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.5 against an average line of 2; 36.3 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CLE @ NO 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	14–35	L	O43.5
Loose	WSH @ CHI 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form	-1	12–7	W	U37.5
Loose	MIA @ NO 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation & rest	-1.5	20–3	W	U37.5
Loose	PIT @ CIN 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form	-2	16–10	W	U36
Loose	LV @ CLE 2021 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form & rest	-2.5	16–14	L	U42
Loose	CHI @ DET 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation	-3	16–14	L	U41.5
Loose	DEN @ NO 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-2.5	33–10	W	O37.5
Loose	DEN @ LAR 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.5	14–51	L	O36.5
Loose	CLE @ LV 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-2.5	16–20	L	U38.5
Loose	LV @ CHI 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest	-1.5	12–30	L	O37.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV LWLLW	6-9	40%	3-5	1-1
NO WLLWL	6-9	40%	4-4	5-6

Venue/role: LV away, as favorite; NO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV OUUUU	8-7	53%	3-12
NO OUUUU	7-8	47%	5-10

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 54% of games with totals 34.5–40.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
NO	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LV 5–4 NO LV leads · 9 games since 2000 · LV has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−0.8 →−4.2▼ 3.4#29

NO+0.5 →−2.5▼ 3.0#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

#29

Offense

NO better ▶

#21

#18

Defense

◀ LV better

#24

−1.1 #31

Turnovers

NO better ▶

−0.1 #16

63 plays #14

Pace

◀ LV faster

61 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	LV off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	17.6 #29	23.1 #17	NO
Yards / play	4.77 #29	5.79 #29	Even
EPA / play	−0.16 #32	+0.03 #24	NO
Success rate	40% #27	45% #24	Even

When NO has the ball

Even matchup

	NO off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	20.6 #22	26.0 #27	NO
Yards / play	5.33 #17	5.30 #12	LV
EPA / play	−0.05 #22	+0.02 #19	Even
Success rate	41% #24	43% #13	LV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	3.2 #24	4.9 #28	8.1 #27	2.4 #30	7.1 #9	9.5 #24
NO allowed	3.8 #8	7.0 #17	10.8 #13	5.0 #17	7.3 #24	12.3 #21

NO scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	4.4 #17	7.7 #11	12.1 #13	2.6 #29	5.9 #20	8.5 #30
LV allowed	5.4 #26	6.5 #13	11.9 #19	5.5 #23	8.6 #27	14.1 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.