Chargers @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2024)

Sun, Jan 5, 2025, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Las Vegas Raiders · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

10-6 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

4-12 · Power #27

final

Closing spread

LAC -6.5

✓ LAC W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 24–18 LV

✓ LAC (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -4.5

CloseLAC -6.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -4.5

2 → LAC

CloseLAC -6.5

2 pts toward Los Angeles Chargers

Total

Open41.5

no move

Close41.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -4.5 · closed LAC -6.5 · moved 2 toward LACmodel LAC -4

model LAC -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 47% (59 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (34 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -4.5

CloseLAC -6.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 6.5-point road favorite at LV, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LAC won 34–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 41.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.6 against an average line of 6.1; 37 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC @ NE 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-5.5	40–7	W	O41.5
Very close	DEN @ LV 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	29–19	W	O41.5
Very close	NYJ @ NE 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	22–25	L	O41.5
Very close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Close	NO @ NYG 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	14–11	L	U41.5
Close	SEA @ CHI 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar total & season form	-4.5	6–3	L	U42.5
Close	GB @ CHI 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	20–19	L	U41.5
Close	HOU @ DAL 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLWW	12-4	75%	6-2	10-2
LV WLLWW	7-9	44%	3-4	5-8

Venue/role: LAC away, as favorite; LV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UUOOO	7-9	44%	10-6
LV UUUUU	8-8	50%	4-12

Went over in Q4. Of 117 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
LV	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

LAC 33–22 LV LAC leads · 55 games since 1999 · LV has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 8 2024	Las Vegas Raiders 10 @ Los Angeles Chargers 22	LAC -3	LAC W
Dec 14 2023	Los Angeles Chargers 21 @ Las Vegas Raiders 63	LV -3	LV W
Oct 1 2023	Las Vegas Raiders 17 @ Los Angeles Chargers 24	LAC -6.5	LAC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC−0.7 →+1.1▲ 1.8#12

LV−0.8 →−3.4▼ 2.6#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

LAC

Longer bar = better

#16

Offense

◀ LAC better

#29

Defense

◀ LAC better

#16

+0.7 #5

Turnovers

◀ LAC better

−0.9 #30

59 plays #30

Pace

LV faster ▶

64 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Even matchup

	LAC off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #12	25.0 #24	LAC
Yards / play	5.33 #16	5.29 #13	Even
EPA / play	+0.02 #13	0.00 #14	Even
Success rate	41% #21	43% #11	LV

When LV has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	LV off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	18.1 #28	17.6 #1	LAC
Yards / play	4.81 #29	5.31 #14	LAC
EPA / play	−0.14 #31	−0.06 #5	LAC
Success rate	40% #27	42% #7	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.3 #8	7.9 #10	13.1 #10	4.4 #17	5.5 #25	9.9 #22
LV allowed	5.1 #25	6.7 #15	11.8 #19	5.2 #21	8.1 #27	13.3 #27

LV scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	3.2 #25	5.2 #27	8.4 #27	2.4 #31	7.3 #10	9.7 #24
LAC allowed	2.7 #3	5.1 #4	7.8 #2	3.6 #4	6.2 #16	9.8 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.