Bills @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2024)

Sun, Jan 5, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 18 · at New England Patriots · Division game

Weather at kickoff31°F17 mphgusts 38DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

13-3 · Power #4

final

Final

New England Patriots

3-13 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -3.5

✓ NE W

Total

36.5

▲ Over · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 23–19 NE

✗ BUF (65%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -2

CloseBUF -3.5

Total41.5 → 36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -2

1.5 → BUF

CloseBUF -3.5

1.5 pts toward Buffalo Bills

Total

Open41.5

▼ 5

Close36.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -2 · closed BUF -3.5 · moved 1.5 toward BUFmodel BUF -12

model BUF -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 58% (92 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (56 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -2

CloseBUF -3.5

Total41.5 → 36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like BUF as a 3.5-point road favorite at NE, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 23–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 2 similar games. 39 points went over 36.5, as in 2 of 2.

Favorite won

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0 against an average line of 3.5; 46 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	PIT @ CLE 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & total	-3.5	19–24	L	O36.5
Loose	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & rest	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WLWLW	10-6	63%	5-3	8-4
NE LWLWL	7-9	44%	3-4	7-9

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; NE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OOOUO	11-5	69%	13-3
NE OOOUO	10-6	63%	3-13

Went over in Q4. Of 42 earlier overs in games with totals 33.5–39.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%
NE	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

BUF 16–40 NE NE leads · 56 games since 1999 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 22 2024	New England Patriots 21 @ Buffalo Bills 24	BUF -14.5	NE W
Dec 31 2023	New England Patriots 21 @ Buffalo Bills 27	BUF -15.5	NE W
Oct 22 2023	Buffalo Bills 25 @ New England Patriots 29	BUF -7.5	NE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.3 →+5.3▲ 3.0#4

NE−1.8 →−5.1▼ 3.3#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

BUF

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ BUF better

#26

#16

Defense

◀ BUF better

#25

+1.4 #1

Turnovers

◀ BUF better

−0.6 #28

60 plays #27

Pace

Even

60 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	30.9 #2	24.5 #23	BUF
Yards / play	5.96 #6	5.46 #19	BUF
EPA / play	+0.19 #2	+0.07 #29	BUF
Success rate	47% #7	45% #27	BUF

When NE has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	NE off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #30	21.6 #12	BUF
Yards / play	4.83 #28	5.52 #21	BUF
EPA / play	−0.08 #27	−0.01 #13	BUF
Success rate	42% #18	44% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.9 #6	8.6 #6	14.5 #5	8.6 #2	8.7 #1	17.3 #1
NE allowed	4.6 #19	8.2 #26	12.8 #24	6.0 #26	5.9 #14	11.9 #19

NE scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	3.2 #24	4.7 #30	7.9 #29	2.3 #32	6.4 #16	8.8 #29
BUF allowed	4.4 #16	7.4 #21	11.9 #20	3.2 #3	6.5 #18	9.7 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.