Patriots @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2024)

Sun, Dec 22, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Buffalo Bills · Division game

Weather at kickoff7°F1 mphDryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New England Patriots

3-11 · Power #30

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

11-3 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -14.5

✓ NE W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 16–31 BUF

✓ BUF (91%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -14.5

CloseBUF -14.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -14.5

no move

CloseBUF -14.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -14.5 · unchangedmodel BUF -15

model BUF -15

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -14.5

CloseBUF -14.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 14.5-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 24–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 19 against an average line of 13.6; 48.8 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DET vs JAX 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	52–6	W	O47.5
Very close	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Close	PHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	22–16	L	U44.5
Close	BUF vs ATL 2021 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & season form	-14	29–15	P	U46
Loose	KC vs DEN 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar situation & rest	-13	27–24	L	O46
Loose	KC vs LV 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & spread	-13.5	19–17	L	U41.5
Loose	MIA vs TEN 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-13.5	27–28	L	O44.5
Loose	DAL vs WSH 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & season form	-13	45–10	W	O48
Loose	BUF vs PIT 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & season form	-14	38–3	W	U44.5
Loose	SF vs SEA 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation	-14	28–16	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE WLLWL	6-8	43%	3-4	6-8
BUF WWWLW	9-5	64%	4-2	7-3

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UOOOO	9-5	64%	3-11
BUF OOOOO	10-4	71%	11-3

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
BUF	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NE 40–16 BUF NE leads · 56 games since 1999 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 31 2023	New England Patriots 21 @ Buffalo Bills 27	BUF -15.5	NE W
Oct 22 2023	Buffalo Bills 25 @ New England Patriots 29	BUF -7.5	NE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE−1.8 →−4.7▼ 2.9#30

BUF+2.3 →+5.3▲ 3.0#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

BUF

#25

Offense

BUF better ▶

#24

Defense

BUF better ▶

#17

−0.5 #26

Turnovers

BUF better ▶

+1.3 #1

61 plays #23

Pace

Even

60 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	NE off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #31	22.1 #12	BUF
Yards / play	4.82 #28	5.59 #23	BUF
EPA / play	−0.07 #24	0.00 #16	BUF
Success rate	43% #17	44% #16	Even

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #2	24.1 #23	BUF
Yards / play	6.16 #3	5.55 #20	BUF
EPA / play	+0.22 #1	+0.06 #27	BUF
Success rate	48% #6	45% #25	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	3.1 #26	4.4 #29	7.5 #29	2.6 #30	6.9 #13	9.5 #25
BUF allowed	4.6 #17	8.0 #24	12.6 #21	3.6 #3	5.9 #15	9.6 #7

BUF scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	6.2 #5	9.0 #5	15.2 #2	7.6 #2	8.9 #1	16.6 #1
NE allowed	4.8 #22	7.9 #23	12.7 #22	5.4 #22	5.5 #12	10.9 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.