Jets @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2024)

Sun, Dec 29, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Buffalo Bills · Division game

Weather at kickoff55°F20 mphgusts 37DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New York Jets

4-11 · Power #23

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

12-3 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -10.5

✓ BUF W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

NYJ 15–26 BUF

✓ BUF (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -9.5

CloseBUF -10.5

Total47.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -9.5

1 → BUF

CloseBUF -10.5

1 pt toward Buffalo Bills

Total

Open47.5

▼ 3

Close44.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -9.5 · closed BUF -10.5 · moved 1 toward BUFmodel BUF -11

model BUF -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (55 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -9.5

CloseBUF -10.5

Total47.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 10.5-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 40–14; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 44.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 55%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.4 against an average line of 10.3; 54.6 points a game (usually 47.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	TB vs CAR 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-11	41–17	W	O43
Loose	KC vs PIT 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation & season form	-10.5	36–10	W	O44.5
Loose	BUF vs TB 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-10	24–18	L	U43
Loose	PHI vs WSH 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-11	21–32	L	O43
Loose	DET vs CHI 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar team ratings	-10	23–20	L	U48.5
Loose	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	34–17	W	O45.5
Loose	DAL vs IND 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form	-11	54–19	W	O44.5
Loose	DAL vs WSH 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & rest	-10	56–14	W	O46
Loose	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ LLWWL	5-10	33%	3-4	1-4
BUF WWLWL	9-6	60%	4-3	7-4

Venue/role: NYJ away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ OOOOU	8-7	53%	4-11
BUF OOOOU	10-5	67%	12-3

Went over in Q4. Of 137 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
BUF	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

NYJ 25–29 BUF BUF leads · 54 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2024	Buffalo Bills 23 @ New York Jets 20	BUF -1.5	BUF W
Nov 19 2023	New York Jets 6 @ Buffalo Bills 32	BUF -8.5	BUF W
Sep 11 2023	Buffalo Bills 16 @ New York Jets 22	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−1.2 →−1.9▼ 0.7#23

BUF+2.3 →+4.9▲ 2.6#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

NYJ

Longer bar = better

BUF

#19

Offense

BUF better ▶

#13

Defense

◀ NYJ better

#17

−0.1 #18

Turnovers

BUF better ▶

+1.3 #1

59 plays #29

Pace

Even

60 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Even matchup

	NYJ off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	19.5 #24	22.1 #13	BUF
Yards / play	5.18 #19	5.58 #23	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #16	0.00 #15	Even
Success rate	42% #18	44% #15	Even

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #2	22.9 #16	BUF
Yards / play	6.12 #5	4.96 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.21 #2	+0.03 #23	BUF
Success rate	48% #6	43% #12	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	4.7 #13	5.3 #26	9.9 #22	4.6 #16	4.9 #28	9.5 #24
BUF allowed	4.7 #23	7.9 #23	12.7 #22	3.4 #3	6.0 #16	9.4 #9

BUF scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.8 #6	8.9 #4	14.7 #4	7.8 #2	8.8 #1	16.6 #1
NYJ allowed	4.5 #17	7.5 #21	12.0 #20	3.8 #5	6.7 #20	10.5 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.