Cowboys @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2024)

Sun, Dec 29, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Philadelphia Eagles · Division game

Weather at kickoff64°F11 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

7-8 · Power #22

final

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

12-3 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

PHI -7.5

✓ PHI W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 17–25 PHI

✓ PHI (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -7.5

ClosePHI -7.5

Total42.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -7.5

no move

ClosePHI -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open42.5

▼ 5

Close37.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -7.5 · unchangedmodel PHI -5

model PHI -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 47% (66 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -7.5

ClosePHI -7.5

Total42.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 7.5-point home favorite against DAL, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 41–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 37.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 7.3; 41.6 points a game (usually 46.3). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CHI vs NE 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	3–19	L	U37.5
Loose	HOU vs TEN 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7.5	27–32	L	O40.5
Loose	CLE vs ARI 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	27–0	W	U38.5
Loose	BUF vs NYJ 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-8.5	32–6	W	U39
Loose	NE vs CHI 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form	-8.5	14–33	L	O40
Loose	BAL vs ATL 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	17–9	W	U35.5
Loose	NO vs ATL 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7	25–27	L	O43
Loose	CIN vs BAL 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	24–17	L	O40
Loose	SF vs WSH 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & rest	-6.5	37–20	W	O37.5
Loose	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL WWLWW	6-9	40%	4-3	5-7
PHI WWLWL	9-6	60%	2-4	6-6

Venue/role: DAL away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL OOUOO	10-5	67%	7-8
PHI OUUUO	6-9	40%	12-3

Went over in Q3. Of 54 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–40.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
PHI	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

DAL 26–29 PHI PHI leads · 55 games since 1999 · DAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 10 2024	Philadelphia Eagles 34 @ Dallas Cowboys 6	PHI -7.5	PHI W
Dec 10 2023	Philadelphia Eagles 13 @ Dallas Cowboys 33	DAL -3.5	DAL W
Nov 5 2023	Dallas Cowboys 23 @ Philadelphia Eagles 28	PHI -3.5	PHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL+2.5 →−1.6▼ 4.1#22

PHI−0.1 →+5.0▲ 5.1#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

DAL

Longer bar = better

PHI

#24

Offense

PHI better ▶

#28

Defense

PHI better ▶

−0.2 #19

Turnovers

PHI better ▶

+0.4 #9

65 plays #6

Pace

Even

66 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: PHI defense

	DAL off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #19	18.9 #4	PHI
Yards / play	5.08 #24	4.78 #1	PHI
EPA / play	−0.10 #28	−0.08 #3	PHI
Success rate	41% #25	39% #1	PHI

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PHI offense

	PHI off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #8	26.9 #30	PHI
Yards / play	5.65 #11	5.80 #30	PHI
EPA / play	+0.12 #5	+0.07 #28	PHI
Success rate	46% #12	45% #25	PHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	3.5 #21	7.4 #15	10.9 #18	4.5 #17	6.3 #18	10.7 #15
PHI allowed	4.6 #19	5.0 #3	9.6 #8	4.1 #7	5.2 #9	9.3 #7

PHI scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	3.2 #24	8.6 #6	11.8 #16	6.4 #5	8.6 #3	15.0 #3
DAL allowed	6.1 #31	7.2 #18	13.3 #28	6.3 #29	7.3 #25	13.6 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.