Buccaneers @ Cowboys: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2024)

Sun, Dec 22, 2024, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Dallas Cowboys

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8-6 · Power #7

final

Final

Dallas Cowboys

6-8 · Power #22

▲ winner

Closing spread

TB -4.5

✓ DAL W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 28–23 DAL

✗ TB (66%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -4.5

CloseTB -4.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -4.5

no move

CloseTB -4.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -4.5 · unchangedmodel TB -5

model TB -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 55% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -4.5

CloseTB -4.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 4.5-point road favorite at DAL, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: DAL won 26–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 47.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 4.3; 48.7 points a game (usually 44.4). Of the 7 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Very close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Very close	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	PHI @ LAR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & total	-2.5	37–20	W	O47.5
Close	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5
Close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & season form	-2.5	20–30	L	O46.5
Close	CIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	37–27	W	O46.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Close	TB @ CAR 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	26–23	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB WWLWW	9-5	64%	5-2	4-2
DAL LWWLW	5-9	36%	1-6	4-7

Venue/role: TB away, as favorite; DAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB UUOUO	9-5	64%	8-6
DAL OOOUO	9-5	64%	6-8

Went over in Q4. Of 98 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
DAL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TB 7–9 DAL DAL leads · 16 games since 2000 · TB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+0.1 →+2.2▲ 2.1#9

DAL+2.5 →−1.6▼ 4.1#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

DAL

Offense

◀ TB better

#24

#23

Defense

◀ TB better

#27

−0.1 #19

Turnovers

◀ TB better

−0.4 #24

63 plays #11

Pace

DAL faster ▶

65 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Advantage: TB offense

	TB off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #5	27.1 #30	TB
Yards / play	6.14 #5	5.80 #30	TB
EPA / play	+0.10 #6	+0.07 #29	TB
Success rate	48% #4	44% #19	TB

When DAL has the ball

Even matchup

	DAL off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #21	23.3 #22	Even
Yards / play	5.04 #25	5.55 #19	TB
EPA / play	−0.11 #28	+0.02 #21	TB
Success rate	41% #23	46% #28	DAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	7.5 #1	7.1 #14	14.6 #5	5.1 #13	8.9 #1	13.9 #5
DAL allowed	6.6 #32	6.7 #17	13.3 #28	6.5 #30	7.4 #25	13.9 #27

DAL scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	3.0 #27	7.0 #18	10.0 #21	4.6 #17	6.7 #17	11.3 #15
TB allowed	3.6 #8	9.6 #31	13.2 #26	4.2 #9	5.0 #4	9.2 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.