Buccaneers @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Sun, Dec 15, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Los Angeles Chargers

Weather at kickoff66°F2 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

7-6 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

8-5 · Power #13

final

Closing spread

LAC -3

✓ TB W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 22–25 LAC

✗ LAC (60%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -3

CloseLAC -3

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAC -3

no move

CloseLAC -3

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAC -3 · unchangedmodel TB -0.5

model TB -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 66%, covered 50% (111 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLAC -3

CloseLAC -3

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 3-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 40–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 3; 50 points a game (usually 44.3). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Very close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Very close	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	ARI vs WSH 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-3.5	14–42	L	O48.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB WWWLW	8-5	62%	4-2	4-3
LAC WWLWW	10-3	77%	5-1	8-1

Venue/role: TB away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB OUUOU	8-5	62%	7-6
LAC OOOUU	4-9	31%	8-5

Went over in Q3. Of 114 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
LAC	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TB 4–2 LAC TB leads · 6 games since 2004 · TB has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+0.1 →+1.3▲ 1.2#10

LAC−0.7 →+1.1▲ 1.8#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

Longer bar = better

LAC

Offense

◀ TB better

#20

#24

Defense

LAC better ▶

−0.2 #17

Turnovers

LAC better ▶

+0.8 #3

63 plays #13

Pace

◀ TB faster

58 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #5	15.9 #1	Even
Yards / play	6.02 #5	5.19 #7	Even
EPA / play	+0.09 #6	−0.07 #7	Even
Success rate	48% #5	41% #7	Even

When LAC has the ball

Even matchup

	LAC off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #20	23.8 #22	Even
Yards / play	5.30 #17	5.62 #22	LAC
EPA / play	0.00 #16	+0.04 #24	LAC
Success rate	39% #28	46% #29	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	7.5 #1	7.2 #13	14.8 #3	4.2 #23	8.8 #3	12.9 #11
LAC allowed	2.2 #1	4.2 #2	6.4 #1	2.9 #2	6.6 #19	9.5 #8

LAC scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	4.8 #11	7.5 #12	12.3 #13	4.2 #23	4.8 #27	9.0 #28
TB allowed	3.4 #8	9.5 #29	12.9 #25	4.5 #10	5.4 #12	9.9 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.