Commanders @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Sun, Dec 15, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at New Orleans Saints

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

8-5 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

New Orleans Saints

5-8 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

WSH -7.5

✓ NO W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 27–20 NO

✓ WSH (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -7

CloseWSH -7.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSH -7

0.5 → WSH

CloseWSH -7.5

0.5 pts toward Washington Commanders

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSH -7 · closed WSH -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward WSHmodel WSH -6.5

model WSH -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSH -7

CloseWSH -7.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSH as a 7.5-point road favorite at NO, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 20–19; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 44.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 6.6; 40.4 points a game (usually 46.3). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB @ CHI 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	20–19	L	U41.5
Close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Close	SF @ TB 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	23–20	L	U50.5
Close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Loose	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar total	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Loose	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · loose	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5
Loose	BAL @ CLE 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar total	-7.5	24–29	L	O44.5
Loose	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Loose	DAL @ WSH 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-7.5	6–26	L	U41
Loose	KC @ LAC 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread	-7.5	17–10	L	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH WLLLW	9-4	69%	4-2	6-2
NO LWWLL	5-8	38%	3-4	4-5

Venue/role: WSH away, as favorite; NO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OOUOO	9-4	69%	8-5
NO OUOUU	7-6	54%	5-8

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 51% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
NO	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSH 6–6 NO Series tied · 12 games since 2001 · WSH has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH−3.1 →+1.2▲ 4.3#12

NO+0.5 →−1.9▼ 2.4#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

WSH

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ WSH better

#17

#18

Defense

Even

#20

+0.3 #9

Turnovers

◀ WSH better

+0.2 #13

64 plays #9

Pace

◀ WSH faster

62 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	28.9 #4	22.5 #14	WSH
Yards / play	5.91 #7	5.90 #31	WSH
EPA / play	+0.16 #3	0.00 #15	WSH
Success rate	49% #4	44% #18	WSH

When NO has the ball

Even matchup

	NO off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #16	22.8 #17	Even
Yards / play	5.47 #14	5.52 #20	NO
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	+0.02 #19	Even
Success rate	42% #20	44% #17	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	6.8 #3	8.6 #8	15.4 #2	6.0 #10	7.5 #8	13.5 #6
NO allowed	3.3 #6	6.5 #15	9.8 #9	5.3 #20	7.4 #22	12.7 #22

NO scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	5.1 #11	8.8 #7	13.9 #7	2.5 #31	5.9 #21	8.4 #29
WSH allowed	2.8 #4	5.1 #6	7.8 #2	5.2 #18	9.8 #32	14.9 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.