Rams @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2024)

Thu, Dec 12, 2024, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 15 · at San Francisco 49ers · Division game

Weather at kickoff53°F1 mphgusts 7Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

7-6 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

San Francisco 49ers

6-7 · Power #9

final

Closing spread

SF -2.5

✓ LAR W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 18 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 23–26 SF

✗ SF (61%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -2.5

CloseSF -2.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -2.5

no move

CloseSF -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -2.5 · unchangedmodel SF -7

model SF -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (118 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -2.5

CloseSF -2.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 2.5-point home favorite against LAR, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 12–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 18 points stayed under 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 3.5; 48.3 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5
Close	LAR vs MIA 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	15–23	L	U50.5
Close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	SF vs CHI 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	38–13	W	O43.5
Close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & situation	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR LWLWW	6-7	46%	3-3	3-5
SF LLLLW	5-8	38%	4-3	5-6

Venue/role: LAR away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR UOOUO	7-6	54%	7-6
SF UUOOO	8-5	62%	6-7

Stayed under: it needed 40 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 48% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
SF	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

LAR 24–31 SF (1 tied) SF leads · 56 games since 1999 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 22 2024	San Francisco 49ers 24 @ Los Angeles Rams 27	SF -6.5	LAR W
Jan 7 2023	Los Angeles Rams 21 @ San Francisco 49ers 20	SF -5.5	LAR W
Sep 17 2023	San Francisco 49ers 30 @ Los Angeles Rams 23	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+0.7 →−0.6▼ 1.3#19

SF+3.2 →+3.2–#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

LAR

Longer bar = better

#13

Offense

SF better ▶

#26

Defense

SF better ▶

#14

+0.2 #12

Turnovers

◀ LAR better

−0.2 #19

62 plays #18

Pace

◀ LAR faster

60 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Even matchup

	LAR off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #16	23.7 #21	LAR
Yards / play	5.50 #14	5.05 #6	SF
EPA / play	+0.02 #14	0.00 #12	Even
Success rate	47% #6	44% #17	LAR

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #12	25.5 #24	SF
Yards / play	6.32 #2	5.85 #28	SF
EPA / play	+0.08 #10	+0.06 #27	SF
Success rate	46% #13	45% #26	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	2.1 #30	6.7 #17	8.8 #26	6.8 #5	6.8 #13	13.7 #6
SF allowed	2.8 #4	5.9 #9	8.8 #5	6.0 #27	8.9 #28	14.9 #29

SF scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	5.6 #7	6.6 #19	12.2 #14	5.7 #11	5.8 #22	11.5 #15
LAR allowed	5.8 #29	6.0 #10	11.8 #16	6.3 #29	6.9 #20	13.2 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.