Dolphins @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Thu, Nov 28, 2024, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Green Bay Packers

Weather at kickoff27°F10 mphgusts 22DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

5-6 · Power #18

final

Final

Green Bay Packers

8-3 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

GB -3.5

✓ GB W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 21–24 GB

✓ GB (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -3.5

CloseGB -3.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -3.5

no move

CloseGB -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -3.5 · unchangedmodel GB -5.5

model GB -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 54% (111 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -3.5

CloseGB -3.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 3.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 30–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.4 against an average line of 3.8; 48.2 points a game (usually 43.9). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Very close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & team ratings	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & total	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Close	BAL vs CIN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	35–34	L	O52.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	ARI vs WSH 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & total	-3.5	14–42	L	O48.5
Close	PHI vs WSH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	26–18	W	U49.5
Close	LAR vs MIA 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	15–23	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LWWWW	5-6	45%	3-2	2-2
GB LLLLW	5-6	45%	3-3	3-4

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OOUOO	5-6	45%	5-6
GB UOUUO	6-5	55%	8-3

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 52% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
GB	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIA 2–6 GB GB leads · 8 games since 2000 · GB has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+1.5 →−0.3▼ 1.8#17

GB+0.5 →+3.9▲ 3.4#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MIA

Longer bar = better

#22

Offense

GB better ▶

#12

Defense

Even

#14

−0.1 #20

Turnovers

GB better ▶

+0.7 #5

64 plays #10

Pace

◀ MIA faster

62 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: GB defense

	MIA off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	19.5 #24	20.3 #10	GB
Yards / play	5.09 #22	5.33 #14	GB
EPA / play	−0.07 #24	−0.06 #8	GB
Success rate	43% #16	45% #24	MIA

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	26.2 #8	21.5 #12	Even
Yards / play	6.18 #4	5.17 #9	GB
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	−0.03 #12	Even
Success rate	44% #15	43% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	4.3 #16	5.1 #26	9.4 #21	4.3 #18	5.9 #20	10.2 #20
GB allowed	2.5 #2	10.1 #30	12.5 #22	4.8 #11	2.9 #1	7.7 #4

GB scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	6.1 #4	7.0 #14	13.1 #9	6.3 #8	6.8 #13	13.1 #7
MIA allowed	4.0 #14	5.3 #7	9.3 #7	5.3 #18	6.9 #21	12.2 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.