Colts @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sun, Dec 1, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at New England Patriots

Weather at kickoff36°F10 mphgusts 22DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

5-7 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

New England Patriots

3-9 · Power #30

final

Closing spread

IND -2.5

✓ NE W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 22–20 NE

✓ IND (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -2.5

CloseIND -2.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIND -2.5

no move

CloseIND -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IND -2.5 · unchangedmodel IND -1.5

model IND -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 54% (81 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIND -2.5

CloseIND -2.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 2.5-point road favorite at NE, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: IND won 25–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 41.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 3.5; 39 points a game (usually 43.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	PIT @ LV 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	32–13	W	O36.5
Close	NYJ @ TEN 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	24–17	W	U42.5
Close	MIN @ CHI 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	30–27	W	O39.5
Close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Close	CLE @ LV 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-2.5	16–20	L	U38.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLLWL	8-4	67%	4-2	2-1
NE WWWLL	5-7	42%	2-3	5-7

Venue/role: IND away, as favorite; NE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND UUOOU	5-7	42%	5-7
NE OUUOO	7-5	58%	3-9

Went over in Q4. Of 97 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
NE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

IND 10–18 NE NE leads · 28 games since 1999 · IND has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 12 2023	Indianapolis Colts 10 @ New England Patriots 6	IND -1	IND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−0.6 →−1.2▼ 0.6#21

NE−1.8 →−4.8▼ 3.0#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

IND

Longer bar = better

#23

Offense

◀ IND better

#27

#16

Defense

◀ IND better

#22

−0.1 #19

Turnovers

◀ IND better

−0.6 #26

58 plays #29

Pace

NE faster ▶

61 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Even matchup

	IND off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	20.2 #22	23.5 #19	Even
Yards / play	5.43 #15	5.59 #23	IND
EPA / play	−0.07 #25	+0.05 #24	Even
Success rate	38% #31	45% #20	NE

When NE has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	NE off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	16.4 #31	22.8 #16	IND
Yards / play	4.57 #31	5.58 #21	IND
EPA / play	−0.10 #26	−0.02 #13	IND
Success rate	41% #21	43% #13	IND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	4.5 #13	4.1 #29	8.6 #25	2.4 #31	9.2 #1	11.6 #15
NE allowed	4.2 #17	8.4 #24	12.6 #25	5.8 #26	4.6 #7	10.4 #14

NE scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	3.2 #25	4.0 #30	7.2 #30	3.1 #27	6.2 #19	9.3 #25
IND allowed	3.6 #8	6.1 #11	9.7 #8	5.3 #19	7.8 #26	13.2 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.