Cardinals @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sun, Dec 1, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Minnesota Vikings

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

6-5 · Power #17

final

Final

Minnesota Vikings

9-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

✓ ARI W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

ARI 21–25 MIN

✓ MIN (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -4.5

CloseMIN -3.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -4.5

1 → ARI

CloseMIN -3.5

1 pt toward Arizona Cardinals

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -4.5 · closed MIN -3.5 · moved 1 toward ARImodel MIN -3.5 matches the line

model MIN -3.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (112 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 44% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -4.5

CloseMIN -3.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 3.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 23–22; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 3.8; 47.8 points a game (usually 43.9). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Very close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Very close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Very close	ARI vs WSH 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	14–42	L	O48.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar total & rest	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI WWWWL	7-4	64%	3-2	5-2
MIN LWLWW	8-3	73%	3-1	4-3

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; MIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI UOUUU	5-6	45%	6-5
MIN OUUUO	4-7	36%	9-2

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 50% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
MIN	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARI 4–10 MIN MIN leads · 14 games since 2000 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI−1.7 →0.0▲ 1.7#15

MIN−0.1 →+2.7▲ 2.8#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ARI

Longer bar = better

MIN

#11

Offense

Even

#12

#21

Defense

MIN better ▶

0.0 #18

Turnovers

MIN better ▶

+0.4 #8

57 plays #30

Pace

MIN faster ▶

62 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	ARI off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #17	17.9 #5	MIN
Yards / play	5.95 #6	5.09 #7	Even
EPA / play	+0.05 #11	−0.13 #2	MIN
Success rate	46% #9	38% #2	MIN

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN offense

	MIN off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	24.9 #9	21.5 #11	Even
Yards / play	5.66 #12	5.41 #16	Even
EPA / play	0.00 #14	+0.05 #25	MIN
Success rate	45% #12	47% #31	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	5.7 #6	7.0 #15	12.7 #13	4.0 #21	5.5 #24	9.5 #24
MIN allowed	2.5 #3	5.4 #7	7.8 #2	3.1 #5	7.0 #22	10.1 #11

MIN scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	7.5 #1	5.5 #22	13.0 #11	6.5 #6	5.1 #26	11.6 #13
ARI allowed	4.0 #15	8.5 #25	12.5 #24	4.9 #11	4.0 #3	8.9 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.