Steelers @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sun, Dec 1, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Cincinnati Bengals · Division game

Weather at kickoff31°F8 mphgusts 20DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

8-3 · Power #12

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

4-7 · Power #14

final

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

✓ PIT W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 82 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 21–25 CIN

✗ CIN (61%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -2.5

CloseCIN -3.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -2.5

1 → CIN

CloseCIN -3.5

1 pt toward Cincinnati Bengals

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -2.5 · closed CIN -3.5 · moved 1 toward CINmodel CIN -0.5

model CIN -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (112 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (37 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -2.5

CloseCIN -3.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 3.5-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 44–38 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 82 points went over 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 2.9; 50.1 points a game (usually 43.9). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & season form	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5
Close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & total	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & total	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5
Close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT WWWWL	7-3	70%	3-2	4-0
CIN WLWWL	6-5	55%	1-4	4-3

Venue/role: PIT away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT OOOUO	6-4	60%	8-3
CIN UOOOO	8-3	73%	4-7

Went over in Q2. Of 94 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	6-3 67%
CIN	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

PIT 41–16 CIN PIT leads · 57 games since 1999 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 23 2023	Cincinnati Bengals 11 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 34	CIN -3	PIT W
Nov 26 2023	Pittsburgh Steelers 16 @ Cincinnati Bengals 10	PIT -2	PIT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−0.4 →+2.3▲ 2.7#9

CIN−0.2 →−0.2–#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

PIT

Longer bar = better

CIN

#20

Offense

CIN better ▶

Defense

◀ PIT better

#25

+1.2 #2

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

+0.1 #15

66 plays #3

Pace

◀ PIT faster

62 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: PIT offense

	PIT off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #14	26.9 #28	PIT
Yards / play	5.00 #23	5.45 #17	CIN
EPA / play	−0.01 #15	+0.07 #28	PIT
Success rate	40% #26	47% #28	Even

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #6	16.9 #3	Even
Yards / play	5.71 #11	5.25 #9	Even
EPA / play	+0.09 #7	−0.08 #6	Even
Success rate	45% #13	42% #12	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	3.2 #24	5.2 #25	8.4 #26	6.3 #8	8.3 #4	14.5 #5
CIN allowed	2.8 #5	8.6 #26	11.5 #17	5.6 #22	9.5 #30	15.2 #30

CIN scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.0 #12	6.6 #17	11.6 #15	8.7 #2	6.6 #15	15.4 #3
PIT allowed	4.6 #22	5.2 #6	9.8 #10	1.2 #1	5.9 #15	7.1 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.